Hertha and Monchengladbach will feature in the first match of the German Bundesliga round and one thinks that the home team is over its true odds to win Friday’s game in Berlin.
Fifth on the German Bundesliga ladder, Hertha does not have the quality to trouble either Bayern Munchen or Dortmund in the marathon that is the championship race but the Old Lady have won each of their four divisional home matches and it does not have to concern itself with a UEFA tournament.
Monchengladbach, on the other hand, has back up from a UEFA Champions League game against Celtic in which it failed to parlay home advantage into three points. Monchengladbach has failed to score in each of its last four German Bundesliga matches and, if anything, the difference between the Foals and Hertha on the ladder should be bigger than it is.
Hertha and Monchengladbach had played half a dozen common German Bundesliga opponents and, according to one’s league collateral form analysis, the Old Lady hold a 5-1 lead over the Foals. Monchengladbach has accrued just one point from its four German Bundesliga away games and yet bookmakers are betting as though the Foals are slightly superior to Hertha.
Several bookmakers, including William Hill, are quoting odds of 3/22.50+1501.501.50-0.67 about Hertha getting the better of Monchengladbach when one thinks that Old Lady should be trading at no bigger than the 23/202.15+1151.151.15-0.87 mark even though they have had terrible results versus the Foals recently. Hertha has lost five German Bundesliga matches against Monchengladbach on the spin, including 1-4 and 0-5 reverses last season. But this term is another matter and one cannot ignore one’s German Bundesliga collateral form numbers that rank Hertha well ahead of Monchengladbach.
Another German Bundesliga team is overpriced in one’s view is Frankfurt, which is available at odds of 17/102.70+1701.701.70-0.59 with 888Sport and Unibet to beat Koln at home on Saturday.
Frankfurt is three points and three rungs below Koln on the German Bundesliga ladder but one’s collateral form analysis suggests that the Eagles are every bit as good as the Billy Goats. Frankfurt and Koln have had seven common German Bundesliga foes and one’s number crunching has the Eagles outperforming the Billy Goats four times to three.
Last season’s corresponding German Bundesliga fixture ended 6-2 in favour of Frankfurt but, while one is not expecting the Eagles to defeat Koln by four goals this time round, one cannot comprehend why they are listed at odds of 17/102.70+1701.701.70-0.59 . Like Hertha, Frankfurt ought to be trading at odds close to 23/202.15+1151.151.15-0.87 .
Finally, Leipzig may be Germany’s least favourite football side because of its ownership structure but it is a worthy favourite for its home game versus Mainz on Sunday.
Leipzig boasts a 3-1-1 German Bundesliga collateral form edge over Mainz, the former has earned 10 points from its four divisional home matches and the latter has to back up from playing Anderlecht in Belgium on Thursday – that is the price that the O-Fives have to pay for their involvement in the UEFA Europa League. Mainz lost 0-3 at Schalke on their last German Bundesliga assignment after a hectic midweek featuring participation in UEFA’s secondary club event.
Marathonbet is listing odds of 73/1001.73-1370.73-1.370.73 about Leipzig winning this weekend and guaranteeing that it is in the German Bundesliga top two at the conclusion of the 10th round.
Hertha Berlin to beat Monchengladbach
Friday 4th November, 19:30 GMT
Eric has been a sports journalist for over 20 years and has travelled the world covering top sporting events for a number of publications. He also has a passion for betting and uses his in-depth knowledge of the sports world to pinpoint outstanding odds and value betting opportunities.
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