Chievo rates as the best value bet on the Italian Serie A program because its Sunday guest, Empoli, boasts an awful record against teams higher than it on the ladder.
Empoli is odds on to retain its Italian Serie A membership card for a third consecutive season but just because there are three even worse sides in the division, including a Pescara team that has only won one game on the field of play. Empoli is 17th on the Italian Serie A ladder and the Blues are 2-6-14 against higher ranked opponents such as Chievo. Moreover, Empoli is 0-5-11 versus Italian Serie A sides that are either Chievo or ranked about the Flying Donkeys. It is puzzling how bookmakers have reached the conclusion that Chievo should be odds against to get the better of Empoli in their second meeting of the term, the first of which resulted in a 0-0 draw five months ago.
According to one’s Italian Serie A collateral form analysis, Chievo holds an 11-0-8 advantage over Empoli, including a favourable direct head to head. Chievo is no world beater but the Flying Donkeys have taken care of business in most of the Italian Serie A matches for which they have been the favourites, posting 7-4-1 numbers versus teams below them on the ladder, including 3-3-0 statistics on their home pitch. No Italian Serie A side has fared worse in the last five rounds than Empoli and that is a damning indictment on the Blues given the presence of Pescara, Crotone and Palermo.
Like Chievo, Udinese is not competing at the point end of the Italian Serie A competition but the Little Zebras have got one’s attention this weekend because they are odds against to record an away victory over pitiful Pescara.
According to one’s Italian Serie A collateral form analysis, Udinese enjoys a 13-2-3 edge over Pescara, with one ignoring their respective performances versus Sassuolo because one of those games was determined in the courts rather than on the field. Udinese hosted Pescara in October and the reverse Italian Serie A match ended 3-1 in favour of the Little Zebras so the direct head-to-head form line is strong.
Marathonbet is listing Udinese at odds of +148 to inflict Pescara’s 20th official defeat of the Italian Serie A season. Udinese is 5-1-1 in its seven Italian Serie A games against lower ranked foes, while Pescara has only avoided away losses at 15th-placed Genoa and 18th-placed Palermo.
The early Italian Serie A reports are that Pescara will be without several players, included suspended defender Andrea Coda, the Italy youth international who plays in defence.
Finally, one thinks that it will be worthing waiting for Monday’s Italian Serie A round closer between Lazio and Torino to back the White and Sky Blues at odds of -161 with Marathonbet and William Hill to defeat Torino.
Strictly speaking, Lazio is too short at odds of -161 given that, according to one’s Italian Serie A collateral form analysis, the White and Sky Blues hold just a 9-2-8 lead over Torino. But Lazio is 9-2-3 in its 14 Italian Serie A home matches, Torino is 2-5-7 in its 14 divisional away games and the White and Sky Blues are 4-3-0 in their last seven encounters versus the Maroons across all events.
Chievo to beat Empoli
Sunday 12th March, 14:00 GMT
Udinese to beat Pescara
Sunday 12th March, 14:00 GMT
Lazio to beat Torino
Monday 13th March, 19:45 GMT
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