The best bet in the 14th round of Italian Serie A matches is under 10 and a half corner kicks in Monday’s game between Sassuolo and Fiorentina, two of the league’s corner misers.
No Italian Serie A side is averaging fewer corners gained than Sassuolo, with the Black and Greens taking a mean of 3.69 corners per match. Only six of Sassuolo’s 13 Italian Serie A games have gone under 10 and a half corner kicks but there is sufficient encouragement in Fiorentina’s corners data for one to like the idea of the suggested wager.
Fiorentina is Italian Serie A’s Ebenezer Scrooge when it comes to corner kicks. No Italian Serie A team is defending fewer corner kicks per match than Fiorentina, which has conceded an average of just 2.77 corners. All bar one of Fiorentina’s 13 Italian Serie A games have gone under 10 and a half corners, including all six of its away matches with counts of five, six, seven (twice) and nine (twice). And that Fiorentina is taking a mean of only 5.15 corner kicks per Italian Serie A game is enough for one not to get too concerned about Sassuolo’s propensity to give away corners. After all, Sassuolo will be the home side for Monday’s match and the likelihood is that the Black and Greens will have more than their fair share of possession during the game.
One was surprised to see Roma available at odds of -175 with Coral to register an Italian Serie A home victory on Sunday over an Atalanta team that has trouble scoring goals.
First, Atalanta has not rustled the onion bag in any of its last four Italian Serie A away games. Indeed, Atalanta has not scored an Italian Serie A goal anywhere for more than 270 minutes, firing blanks against Bologna, Milan and Torino since netting an 86th-minute winner at home to Lazio.
Second, one thinks that Coral and some other bookmakers have overreacted to Roma’s 1-6 UEFA Champions League loss at Barcelona on Tuesday. The margin of Roma’s defeat will have no bearing on which side accompanies Barcelona into the last 16, with the Wolves simply requiring a home victory over BATE to secure second place on the Group E ladder. That is because Roma leads its head-to-head versus Leverkusen.
Third, Roma’s home form across all competitions is terrific. Roma has won each of its last five home matches and it is yet to experience defeat in front of its own supporters.
Finally, one’s Italian Serie A portfolio closes with a more speculative pick – Frosinone to beat Verona in a relegation six-pointer on Sunday. There are conflicting reports about Verona striker Luca Toni’s fitness but it would seem that last season’s Italian Serie A top goal scorer is likely to play some part in what is a huge game for his team – lose and Hellas will slip eight points behind Frosinone.
One suspects that Verona may be rushing back Toni before he is ready to play and that Hellas may resort to lumping the ball towards him if he does make it on to the pitch. Also, one thinks that punters will rally behind Verona if Toni suits up, blowing out Frosinone’s odds to even bigger than the mark of +165 at which it is trading with Marathonbet.
Frosinone has scored two goals in each of its last four Italian Serie A home matches, three of them against sides above Verona on the ladder. Two goals on Sunday would make Frosinone extremely hard to stop collecting three points.
Sassuolo v Fiorentina Under 10.5 corners
30th November 18:00 GMT
Roma to beat Atalanta
29th November 14:00 GMT
Frosinone to beat Verona
29th November 14:00 GMT
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