Fiorentina is a significantly superior side to Lazio, and the Purples rate as clearly the best value bet on the Italian Serie A card as the competition reaches its midway point.
Several bookmakers are betting on Saturday’s Italian Serie A match as though Lazio is in the same postcode as Fiorentina when it comes to class and that is not the case. Fiorentina is second on the Italian Serie A ladder, eight rungs and 14 points above Lazio. And one’s Italian Serie A collateral form analysis suggests that the gap between Fiorentina and Lazio should be wider. Fiorentina and Lazio have had 18 common Italian Serie A opponents and the Purples hold a collateral form advantage of 14-2-2 over their guests.
One is struggling to comprehend how the likes of Bet365 and Bwin are offering odds of 91/1001.91-1100.91-1.100.91 about an Italian Serie A home victory for Fiorentina over Lazio. Admittedly, Lazio has strung together five unbeaten games across all tournaments, including a 2-1 success at Italian Serie A leader Internazionale, but its recent results have included home draws with Carpi and Sampdoria and, as one’s collateral form analysis found, the bulk of its domestic league outcomes have been inferior to those of Fiorentina.
Picking Fiorentina was a no-brainer once one had done one’s Italian Serie A number crunching. There was a long gap to next most attractive Italian Serie A punting proposition – Roma at odds of 53/502.06+1061.061.06-0.94 with Marathonbet to defeat Milan on Saturday in another of Round 19’s high-profile matches.
Roma and Milan are fifth and seventh on the Italian Serie A ladder respectively but the Yellow and Reds have performed much better than the Red and Blacks against direct rivals, particularly teams in the hunt for honours. Roma and Milan have had 18 common Italian Serie A foes, with the Yellow and Reds enjoying an 9-5-4 collateral form edge over the Red and Blacks. Furthermore, Roma is 2-2-1 versus fellow Italian Serie A top-seven sides whereas Milan is 1-0-4, including being 0-0-3 on the road against such opponents. No Italian Serie A team leapt off the coupon like Fiorentina but Roma ought to be trading at odds on to beat Milan in the capital.
Under two and a half goals in Sunday’s San Siro showdown between top-of-the-ladder Internazionale and sixth-placed Sassuolo completes one’s Italian Serie A betting portfolio.
Remarkably, Internazionale’s Italian Serie A games have the league’s lowest goals average of 1.94, with 12 of its 18 matches going under two and a half goals. Sassuolo’s Italian Serie A mean of 2.29 per game is the division’s third lowest and nine of its 17 matches have gone under two and a half goals. Both Internazionale’s home games and Sassuolo’s away matches skew towards under two and a half goals as well.
Marathonbet is offering the bewildering odds of 101/1002.01+1011.011.01-0.99 about Sunday’s Italian Serie A game between Internazionale and Sassuolo going under two and a half goals. Surely under two and a half goals merits favouritism, which is the way that a few bookmakers view the market. Certainly one would rather back Internazionale and Sassuolo to feature in a low-scoring Italian Serie A match than back Inter to accrue three points at much shorter odds. One’s Italian Serie A collateral form analysis says that Internazionale is superior to Sassuolo but Inter’s 8-3-6 advantage is not that of a hot favourite.
Fiorentina to beat Lazio
9th January 17:00 GMT
Roma to beat Milan
9th January 19:45 GMT
Inter v Sassuolo Under 2.5 goals
10th January 11:30 GMT
Eric has been a sports journalist for over 20 years and has travelled the world covering top sporting events for a number of publications. He also has a passion for betting and uses his in-depth knowledge of the sports world to pinpoint outstanding odds and value betting opportunities.
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