Fiorentina’s Italian Serie A title challenge has been built on feasting on the division’s minnows and one fancies that the Purples will remain in the championship race with a triumph over Torino in Saturday’s morning match.
A record of 2-2-5 against Italian Serie A’s top nine teams is why Fiorentina is unlikely to win its first title since 1969 but the Purples have been almost perfect versus the league’s lesser lights, posting 10-0-1 numbers in those games and winning eight of them to nil. Unfortunately for the sake of one’s pick, Fiorentina’s one and only slip-up against an Italian Serie A bottom-11 side was when it lost 1-3 at Torino in August but the weight of data behind the Purples is sufficient for one to cite them as good bets.
Fiorentina and Torino have faced every other Italian Serie A team and, according to one’s collateral form analysis, the Purples lead the Maroons 12-4-3 in spite of the reverse fixture resulting in a 3-1 victory for the latter. Those figures more than back up the Italian Serie A ladder and, while each of Fiorentina’s last two divisional matches have ended with the Purples losing by two goals, Torino’s recent form is not hot and the Maroons are bad travellers usually.
Marathonbet is listing Fiorentina at odds of -119 to get an Italian Serie A home success over a Torino side that scores freely at home but tends to go into its shell on the road, plus the Maroons have the inconvenience of a rescheduled fixture versus Sassuolo to negotiate on Wednesday.
One was expecting bookmakers to make backing Internazionale to beat Carpi on Saturday unattractive but Italian Serie A’s third-ranked team is worth supporting at odds of -250 with Bet365 to get the better of the promoted side that is stuck in the dreaded relegation zone.
Internazionale won 2-1 at Carpi near the beginning of the Italian Serie A season and, according to one’s collateral form analysis, the Black and Blues hold a 14-2-3 edge over the White and Reds based on their results against the league’s other teams. Internazionale has registered 10 of its 12 Italian Serie A victories by one-goal margins so getting stuck into Roberto Mancini’s side giving up a start does not appeal as much as backing it to win by any score.
Italian Serie A is one of Europe’s lowest scoring premier divisions but Sampdoria and Napoli are two of its highest scoring teams, thereby leading one to nominate over two and a half goals at -137 with BetVictor, as one’s third pick.
Just 10 of Sampdoria’s 20 Italian Serie A games have gone over two and a half goals but Samp’s matches have averaged 3.05 goals, which is the second highest mean in the league. Thirteen of Napoli’s 20 Italian Serie A games have gone over two and a half goals, including six of its 10 away matches. And the reverse Italian Serie A fixture between Sunday’s combatants resulted in a 2-2 draw. Juventus is breathing down Napoli’s neck at the top of the Italian Serie A ladder so one expects the Blues to play positively at Sampdoria.
Finally, here are one’s Italian Serie A collateral form analysis results for every one of Round 21’s 10 games. The asterisk signifies the direct head-to-head winner.
Frosinone 5-4-10* versus Atalanta
Empoli 8-2-9* versus Milan
Fiorentina 12-4-3* versus Torino
Sassuolo 12*-0-7 versus Bologna
Internazionale 14*-2-3 versus Carpi
Lazio 6-2-11* versus Chievo (check out our Rags to Riches article for more on this game)
Verona 2-6-11* versus Genoa
Sampdoria 5*-2-12 versus Napoli
Palermo 6*-4-9 versus Udinese
Juventus 11-3-5* versus Roma
Fiorentina to beat Torino
24th January 11:30 GMT
Internazionale to beat Carpi
24th January 14:00 GMT
Sampdoria v Napoli Over 2.5 goals
24th January 14:00 GMT
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