Fiorentina versus Roma is, arguably, the headline act in the 11th round of Italian Serie A matches and it is Saturday’s game in Florence that should interest punters more than others because the Purples are overpriced to win it.
Purely on the Italian Serie A ladder, it is easy to warm to Fiorentina at roughly the same odds as Roma. Fiorentina is two rungs higher up the Italian Serie A ladder than Roma courtesy of the former’s superior goal difference and, according to expected points, there should be some clear air between the Purples and the Yellow and Reds. Bookmakers are betting on Saturday’s Italian Serie A games as though Roma is several notches better than Fiorentina but there is no statistical support for that position and, therefore, the Purples represent good value at +170 with Bet365 and that is even before one avails themselves of the probable starting line-ups.
The team news is not good for Roma with as many as half a dozen players likely to be unavailable to Yellow and Reds coach Eusebio Di Francesco. Fiorentina, however, does not have any of its key players out of action and the Purples are 4-1-0 in their five Italian Serie A home matches this season, scoring 13 goals and conceding only two. Roma has lost just three of its last 31 Italian Serie A away games but two of those reverses have occurred on their last four trips and the most recent clash between the Yellow and Reds and Fiorentina resulted in a 2-0 road win for the Purples.
TOP TIP! – Fiorentina to beat Roma @ +170 with Bet365
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TOP TIP! – Atalanta to beat Bologna @ -125
Atalanta is slowly climbing the Italian Serie A ladder and the Goddess can continue its ascent with an away victory over relegation candidate Bologna on Sunday at -125 with Betway.
Fourteenth on the Italian Serie A ladder does not fairly reflect how Atalanta has performed in the first 10 rounds so much so that, according to expected points, the Goddess is more than five points light of their deserved tally and they should be occupying fifth position above all bar Juventus, Napoli, Milan and Fiorentina. Bologna is 17th and, while its Italian Serie A ranking is a little bit tough, the Red and Blues certainly have one of the league’s worst attacks.
Atalanta has won each of its last five meetings with Bologna, including both of last season’s Italian Serie A matches without conceding a goal. Any number of statistics suggested Atalanta was going to come good eventually and, off the back of two Italian Serie A victories and eight goals in those triumphs, the Goddess are going to be difficult to stop and Bologna is a mediocre team.
TOP TIP! – Sampdoria and Torino to draw @ +235
One does not tip draws very often for obvious reasons – basically, it is hard to hold a strong view about a draw unless one believes both sides will struggle to score – but one does not mind the odds available about Sampdoria and Torino sharing the Italian Serie A spoils on Sunday at +235 with 188Bet.
Sampdoria is marginally ahead of Torino on the Italian Serie A ladder and their respective rankings correspond with their expected goals and expected points data. One could make a case for Sampdoria being a touch too long in the betting if Samp were going to be full strength but they are likely to be without a couple of their regular starters. Also, each of the last three encounters between Sampdoria and Torino has ended all square so history favours backing another draw.
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