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Few Falser Favourites Than Lazio at Sampdoria

April 26, 2019


Sampdoria v Lazio – 28th April – 17:00 BST

Sampdoria and Lazio occupy adjacent positions on the Italian Serie A ladder and the former has home advantage for their league clash on Sunday but bookmakers favour the latter.

Frankly, it does not make any sense whatsoever even allowing for the fact Lazio still have a chance of qualifying for the UEFA Europa League via Italian Serie A. According to one’s Italian Serie A collateral form analysis, Sampdoria is a little bit better than Lazio even though the ladder says otherwise with five rounds remaining. Sampdoria’s boasts a 9-4-6 Italian Serie A collateral form advantage over Lazio, including progressive counts of 4-1-0 and 5-1-2. Allow those numbers to sink in for a while and remember the 4-1-0 ledger means Sampdoria has outperformed Lazio when they have come up against four of the division’s top five sides. Also, consider Sampdoria forced a 2-2 in December’s reverse Italian Serie A fixture, a game it led for 58 minutes. Finally, view the early Lazio team news that relays the injury of Sergej Milinkovic-Savic and the ban of Luis Alberto, whereas Sampdoria has a clean bill of health.

Yes, Sampdoria has lost three of its last four Italian Serie A matches. Yes, Sampdoria’s Italian Serie A season is out of meaning except for Fabio Quagliarella’s pursuit of the competition’s Golden Boot. And yes, wagering on Italian Serie A games in the latter stages of the tournament is fraught with danger. But Sampdoria is hugely overpriced. Lazio has won just one of its Italian Serie A road games versus sides ranked higher than 14th on the ladder so the White and Sky Blues look like very false away favourites.

TOP TIP! – Sampdoria to beat Lazio @ 3.10  with BetVictor

Get the best odds in the Italian Serie A with our selected bookmakers below.



Atalanta v Udinese – 29th April – 18:00 BST

TOP TIP! – Atalanta to beat Udinese @ 1.35

An Italian Serie A team that is not a false favourite is high-flying Atalanta at 1.35  with Betway, which has its eyes on UEFA Champions League qualification. Unbeaten in its last eight Italian Serie A matches, Atalanta should be far too good for an Udinese side struggling to stay up. According to one’s Italian Serie A collateral form analysis, Atalanta’s edge over Udinese is 12-1-6, including progressive counts of 4-0-0, 4-1-1, 7-1-2, 8-1-3 and 10-1-4. Duvan Zapata was Atalanta’s hat-trick hero when the Goddess won December’s reverse Italian Serie A fixture 3-1 before they hit their straps. Udinese is 1-5-10 on its Italian Serie A travels, getting the better of just awful cellar dweller Chievo.


SPAL v Genoa – 28th April – 14:00 BST

TOP TIP! – SPAL and Genoa to draw @ 2.80

Italian Serie A is synonymous with draws and one thinks the best draw bet at 2.80  with BetVictor on this weekend’s coupon is Sunday’s game between SPAL and Chievo to end all square. SPAL has won five of its last six Italian Serie A matches to pull clear of the drop zone, although it is only fair to point out it caught Juventus at the perfect time leading into a UEFA Champions League assignment. According to one’s Italian Serie A collateral form analysis, SPAL holds a 7-6-6 lead over Genoa, which is marginal at best. Furthermore, Genoa’s need for Italian Serie A points is greater than that of SPAL.


Bologna 11-1-7

Roma 12-3-4

Internazionale 4-1-14

Frosinone 2-1-16

Chievo 8-1-10

SPAL 7-6-6

Sampdoria 9-4-6

Torino 7-5-7

Atalanta 12-1-6

Fiorentina 11-2-6

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  • Atalanta
  • Genoa
  • Italian Serie A
  • Lazio
  • Sampdoria
  • SPAL
  • Udinese

    About the author

    Carl Wright
    Carl Wright

    Sports Writer

    Carl is the original ‘Special One’ and uses his statistical knowledge of football to gain the upper hand over the bookies on a weekly basis. A student of odds and probabilities, Carl brings his vast experience of playing the odds and beating the bookies to a weekly column highlighting the very best football bets.