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When one thinks of Spanish Primera Division matches between teams from the cities of Madrid and Barcelona, the sides of Getafe and Espanyol are not the ones that spring to mind.
But one’s research into the 20th round of Spanish Primera Division games suggests that, for punters looking to strike a long-priced wager that represents undeniable value, the match between Getafe and Espanyol on Sunday is compelling.
Getafe is 12th on the Spanish Primera Division ladder after 19 rounds and, if all one looked at before betting was the standings, one would be interested in backing the Deep Blues to beat Espanyol because the Parakeets are ranked 13th and they have two fewer points than their weekend guests. But one’s Spanish Primera Division analysis goes deeper than that in an effort to beat the bookmakers into submission.
Collateral form analysis – comparing the results of teams against identical opponents – is the key to unearthing top bets at this stage of leagues and one’s Spanish Primera Division work suggests that Espanyol is well over its true odds at +270 with BetVictor to triumph at Getafe on Sunday.
Getafe and Espanyol have each played 19 Spanish Primera Division games and, thanks to the league’s straightforward fixture list, the Deep Blues and the Parakeets have both faced every other side in the top flight. According to one’s Spanish Primera Division collateral form analysis, Espanyol enjoys a 10-1-8 edge over Getafe – including a 1-0 home win in Round One clash between the teams – even though the Parakeets are below the Deep Blues on the ladder.
One’s assessment of the Spanish Primera Division results up to now is that Espanyol has performed better than Getafe versus Atletico Madrid (first), Barcelona (second), Eibar (sixth), Sevilla (seventh), Bilbao (eighth), Malaga (10th), the Deep Blues (12th), Betis (14th), Sociedad (15th) and Granada (17th). According to one’s Spanish Primera Division collateral form analysis, Getafe has performed better than Espanyol against Real Madrid (third), Villarreal (fourth), Celta (fifth), Deportivo (ninth), Las Palmas (16th), Vallecano (18th), Gijon (19th) and Levante (20th), while the Deep Blues and the Parakeets did equally well against Valencia (11th). So not only does Espanyol hold a 10-1-8 Spanish Primera Division collateral form advantage over Getafe but also the Parakeets have, generally speaking, played better versus the top sides than the Deep Blues.
The last Spanish Primera Division term concluded with a wide margin between Getafe and Espanyol – the Deep Blues finished in 15th place on 37 points, whereas the Parakeets occupied 10th position on 49 points. One does not expect Getafe and Espanyol to end up so far apart at the conclusion of this season’s Spanish Primera Division but, based on one’s collateral form analysis, one would be not at all surprised to see the Parakeets six points better off than the Deep Blues. One is confident that Espanyol is superior to Getafe and that the Parakeets will fly above the Deep Blues once the Spanish Primera Division fixture list evens out itself.
Converting a Spanish Primera Division collateral form line edge of 10-1-8 into odds is not an exact science but one’s experience as a compiler and punters leads one to think that Espanyol’s right price to win at Getafe on Sunday is around the +200 mark. Therefore, one thinks that BetVictor’s offer of odds of +270 about an Espanyol away victory is about six per cent over the top and that, for a football match in one of the world’s most popular leagues, is quite substantial.
One is not concerned that Getafe is unbeaten in its last six games across all competitions and Espanyol has failed to win any of its most recent four matches irrespective of event – look at the opponents of the teams and you will see why the Deep Blues and the Parakeets have gone on their runs.
Espanyol to beat Getafe
17th January 17:15 GMT
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