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El Clasico to Produce First Home Win Since 2015

May 4, 2018

Barcelona beat Real Madrid 3-0 earlier this season.

It has been three years since an El Clasico home team earned three Spanish Primera Division points but one thinks that run of outs will end when this term’s runaway champion, Barcelona, hosts Real Madrid at Camp Nou on Sunday.

Barcelona is on track to go through the Spanish Primera Division season undefeated as it is 26-8-0 after 34 of the 38 rounds and a century of goals is not out of the question for Barca because they have three home matches and a road trip to Levante remaining. Barcelona has the entire week to prepare for El Clasico because it crashed out of the UEFA Champions League at the quarter-final stages, whereas Real Madrid will be backing up from entertaining Bayern Munchen in the last four of Europe’s top club competition.


Barcelona v Real Madrid

Fifteen points separate Barcelona and Real Madrid on the Spanish Primera Division ladder and one’s collateral form analysis backs up the general view that Barca are superior to the Meringues. Barcelona, which beat Real Madrid 3-0 in December’s reverse Spanish Primera Division fixture, enjoys an 11-1-7 collateral form advantage over the Meringues and that includes progressive counts of 2-0-0, 4-1-0 and 10-1-5.

The reverse Spanish Primera Division fixture went from bad to worse for Real Madrid midway through the second half when, already trailing 0-1, the Meringues conceded a spot-kick and Daniel Carvajal received his marching orders. The Spanish Primera Division title race was all but over for Real Madrid following its 0-3 home loss to Barcelona and surely now the Meringues are much more focused on winning another UEFA Champions League final than this weekend’s El Clasico. European glory is what both Barcelona and Real Madrid crave so, even if the Meringues end the Spanish Primera Division in third place, securing their 13th UEFA Champions League crown will silence a lot of their critics. Back Barcelona on Sunday at odds of 1.72  with 888Sport.

Celta Vigo v Deportivo

Deportivo’s relegation from the Spanish Primera Division is confirmed so one does not think that Super Depor will have the stomach to fight Celta in Saturday’s derby in Vigo.

Celta was dominant in December’s reverse Spanish Primera Division fixture, racing to a 3-0 lead inside 53 minutes before running out an impressive 3-1 winner on the road. Celta is 11th on the Spanish Primera Division ladder and, according to one’s collateral form analysis, the Sky Blues boast a 13-1-5 edge over Deportivo, including progressive counts of 4-0-1, 9-0-3 and 11-1-3. Celta is 5-2-0 in its seven Spanish Primera Division games against sides below it on the ladder, whereas Deportivo has won just one of its 21 league matches versus teams ranked in the top dozen. Celta are a strong bet at 1.62  with Jetbull.

Sevilla v Real Sociedad

One would have nominated Getafe as worthy of a bet away to Las Palmas in one of Sunday’s five Spanish Primera Division games but the Deep Blues have five players suspended and, therefore, it is impossible to back them with confidence. For one’s third Spanish Primera Division selection one is going with Sociedad not to lose away to Sevilla at 1.78  with 888Sport in Friday’s opening match of the 36th round of championship games.

Sevilla is above Sociedad on the Spanish Primera Division ladder but, according to one’s collateral form analysis, the White and Reds are inferior to La Real, trailing their upcoming guests 6-1-12. Sevilla has a Spanish Primera Division goal difference of minus 12 and, realistically, the White and Reds do not have much chance of qualifying for the UEFA Europa League via the league. Sociedad is available at odds against to either beat Sevilla or draw on the road and that strikes one as representing acceptable betting value.

Tips Summary

Barcelona to beat Real Madrid
Sunday 6th May, 19:45 GMT
Odds: 1.72

Celta Vigo to beat Deportivo
Saturday 5th May, 17:30 GMT
Odds: 1.62

Real Sociedad or Draw – Double chance
Friday 4th May, 20:00 GMT
Odds: 1.78

  • Barcelona
  • Celta Vigo
  • La Liga
  • Sociedad
  • Spanish La Liga

    About the author

    Eric Roberts
    Eric Roberts

    Sports Journalist

    Eric has been a sports journalist for over 20 years and has travelled the world covering top sporting events for a number of publications. He also has a passion for betting and uses his in-depth knowledge of the sports world to pinpoint outstanding odds and value betting opportunities.