Eintracht to Draw at Werder and Secure Its Safety

Eintracht Frankfurt's surprise win over Dortmund has given them hope of survival.

Frankfurt requires one point to guarantee that it lines up in next term’s German Bundesliga and one thinks that the draw in its Saturday match at Bremen represents the most attractive wager in the regular season’s final round.

A draw between Bremen and Frankfurt will ensure that the latter remains in the German Bundesliga and pretty much assure the former of a second chance versus the German second tier’s third-placed team, Nurnberg. Stuttgart’s German Bundesliga goal difference is such that its best chance of leapfrogging either Bremen or Frankfurt is for Eintracht to beat Werder in their relegation six-pointer.

One is fond of saying league ladders sometimes lie but the German Bundesliga standings are spot on regarding Bremen and Frankfurt, at least in relation to each other. According to one’s German Bundesliga collateral form analysis, Bremen trails Frankfurt 7-2-8, including Werder losing 1-2 at Eintracht when the sides met in December. So one’s German Bundesliga collateral form figures say that Bremen is a little bit worse than Frankfurt and so does the ladder.

That Bremen and Frankfurt are so evenly matched and that one’s idea of the superior team needs just one point to lock away its German Bundesliga safety leads one to Marathonbet‘s odds of +288  about their game ending all square. One was expecting most bookmakers to favour the draw over Frankfurt but that is not the case, which is somewhat surprising.

It is far from a vintage German Bundesliga round from a punting perspective because so many of the key issues have been resolved. Schalke has qualified for the UEFA Europa League and, while it can mathematically pip Monchengladbach to the German Bundesliga’s fourth UEFA Champions League berth, the likelihood of that happening is tiny. So, to all intents and purposes, Schalke’s German Bundesliga match at Hoffenheim is a dead rubber in which all that can happen is that the Royal Blues improve their UEFA Europa League qualification status. One thinks that the German Bundesliga game between Hoffenheim and Schalke has the potential to be a high-scoring affair and, therefore, over two and a half goals at odds of -222  with Unibet gets one’s vote.

Sixteen of Hoffenheim’s 33 German Bundesliga matches have gone over two and a half goals, including eight of its 16 home games. Twenty-one of Schalke’s 33 German Bundesliga matches have gone over two and a half goals, including 10 of its 16 away games. There will be no real pressure on either Hoffenheim or Schalke during Saturday’s German Bundesliga match, with TSG celebrating their escape from relegation against a Royal Blues team that does ship goals freely.

Goals scored is all that splits Augsburg and Hamburg in the second third of the German Bundesliga ladder but one’s collateral form analysis suggests that the Fuggerstadter are slightly better than the Red Shorts because the former holds an 8-3-6 edge over the latter. Furthermore, Augsburg won 1-0 at Hamburg in December’s reverse German Bundesliga fixture.

Augsburg has finished the German Bundesliga stronger than Hamburg and odds of +110  with Unibet about the Fuggerstadter posting a home victory on Saturday seem more than fair.

Finally, here are one’s German Bundesliga collateral form analysis results for every one of Round 34’s nine games. The asterisk signifies the head-to-head winner.

Augsburg 8*-3-6 versus Hamburg
Bayern Munchen 15*-0-2 versus Hannover
Bremen 7-2-8* versus Frankfurt
Darmstadt 6-2-9* versus Monchengladbach
Dortmund 13-2-2* versus Koln
Hoffenheim 5-3-9* versus Schalke
Leverkusen 11*-2-4 versus Ingolstadt
Mainz 8-0-9* versus Hertha
Wolfsburg 11-3-3* versus Stuttgart

Tips Summary

Werder Bremen and Eintracht Frankfurt to Draw
Saturday 14th May, 14:30 GMT
Odds:  +288

Hoffenheim v Schalke – Over 2.5 Goals
Saturday 14th May, 14:30 GMT
Odds:  -222

Augsburg to beat Hamburg
Saturday 14th May, 14:30 GMT
Odds:  +110

Eintracht Frankfurt
Werder Bremen

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