Eibar overpriced to avenge cup losses to Getafe


Barcelona versus Atletico Madrid at the Camp Nou headlines the Spanish Primera Division round but, while there is a value bet in the aforementioned marquee match, the best betting opportunity is in a much lower profile fixture.

Eibar is trading at odds of +138  with BetVictor to beat Getafe in the Spanish Primera Division clash between the teams ranked eighth and 14th, odds that stand out given one’s collateral form analysis after 17 rounds of action.

Odds of +138  imply that BetVictor are not sure that the Spanish Primera Division ladder is telling the truth about the respective merits of Eibar and Getafe, with those odds implying that there is little to choose between the sides. One begs to differ based on one’s collateral form analysis that suggests that Eibar should be shorter odds.

Eibar and Getafe have had 16 common Spanish Primera Division opponents and one’s view is that nine of those collateral form lines favour the home team, six of them favour the away team and one favours neither team. Eibar’s 9-1-6 Spanish Primera Division collateral form lead over Getafe is the same edge that Bilbao enjoys over Elche in another of the round’s games and only marginally inferior to the advantage that Rayo Vallecano holds over Cordoba. Both Bilbao and Rayo are well into odds-on territory for three Spanish Primera Division points, whereas Eibar is miles above even money.

One acknowledges that Eibar lost home and away to Getafe in their Spanish Copa del Rey tie over two legs last month but one has reviewed the respective line-ups and it would be fair to say that neither side was close to full strength. Therefore, one does not trust the Spanish Copa del Rey form line anywhere near as much as the Spanish Primera Division collateral form lines. Eibar is well over the odds at +138 .

Successful betting is all about obtaining value and, at the odds, one must be against Barcelona in its Spanish Primera Division home match versus Atletico Madrid. Goal difference is what separates Barcelona and Atletico on the Spanish Primera Division ladder prior to their first meeting and one’s collateral form analysis suggests that Barca, while superior to Atletico, is not deserving of such short odds.

Barcelona and Atletico Madrid have faced 16 of the same Spanish Primera Division teams and one’s view is that seven of those collateral form lines favour Barca, five favour Atleti and four favour neither side. One understands that bookmakers will be able to lay Barcelona at odds of around -200  but punters should be looking for a piece of that action, either on a betting exchange or through backing Atletico not to lose at odds of +163  with Bet365. It is not as though Barcelona is a happy camp right now and everyone knows how much Atletico Madrid loves to rip and tear. They showed this in their recent 2-0 win over Real Madrid in the Copa del Rey.

The wheels came off Celta’s Spanish Primera Division season not long after it beat Barcelona 1-0 at the Camp Nou, taking only one point from its subsequent seven league games and failing to score a top-flight goal in any of those matches.

Celta is five places and 14 points behind Valencia on the Spanish Primera Division ladder and one’s collateral form analysis points to the latter being overpriced at odds of +175  with BetVictor to accrue three points on the road. Celta and Valencia have had 16 common Spanish Primera Division foes and one’s view is that 12 of those collateral form lines favour the away team and four of them favour the home team. Valencia should be the clear favourite, not vying with Celta for Spanish Primera Division match favouritism.

Finally, with regards to Spanish Primera Division exotics, bookmakers may end up posting alluring odds about Celta taking more corner kicks than Valencia in their Spanish Primera Division game. Celta is the Spanish Primera Division’s second best corner-kick side, attacking 131 and defending 62. Valencia is ranked in the Spanish Primera Division’s bottom five for corner kicks, attacking 70 and defending 95 so the difference is obvious to anyone who has trawled through this season’s championship statistics.

Tips Summary

Eibar to beat Getafe
10th January 21:00 GMT
Odds:  +138
Where to Bet: BetVictor

Atletico Madrid to win/draw v Barcelona
11th January 20:00 GMT
Odds:  +163
Where to Bet: Bet365

Valencia to beat Celta
10th January 19:00 GMT
Odds:  +175
Where to Bet: BetVictor

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