Manchester City is the hottest favourite on the Boxing Day card but there is an English Premier League outsider that has a collateral form edge close to that of the Citizens.
Bookmakers are taking no chances with Manchester City at home to Sunderland and that’s no surprise because the Citizens and the Black Cats have had 16 common English Premier League opponents and Manuel Pellegrini’s men boast a 11-2-3 collateral form advantage over their holiday guests.
Manchester City will form the basis of many English Premier League accumulators but, in terms of representing the best value on the Boxing Day coupon, the Citizens have to give way to West Ham, which is available at odds of 19/102.90+1901.901.90-0.53 with Coral to triumph at bottom-of-the-ladder .
West Ham’s knockers will point out that the Hammers have gone three English Premier League games without a goal and seven top-flight matches without a victory. In West Ham’s defence, though, the Hammers have kept three consecutive clean sheets, posted four draws in a row and not lost at home in any competition when they have ended with a full complement of 11 players. And West Ham is lining up against an Aston Villa side that has taken four points from its last 16 English Premier League points to sink to the bottom.
Aston Villa and West Ham have had 16 common English Premier League opponents and, according to one’s collateral form analysis, the Villans trail the Hammers 3-1-12 – even after moving the tie to the home team’s side of the ledger, as is one’s custom, and accounting for the continued absence of away team star Diafra Sakho – one cannot understand how Coral has come up with its underdog odds of 19/102.90+1901.901.90-0.53. Even without Sakho, eighth-placed West Ham is entitled to road favouritism over the English Premier League’s worst side.
Overpriced visitors is the name of the game on Boxing Day in the English Premier League, with one’s punting portfolio rounded out by Crystal Palace and Leicester – one can make a strong statistical case for Watford being a ridiculous price versus Chelsea but one fears that the Blues will pull out a decent performance now that Jose Mourinho has been sacked.
Bournemouth and Crystal Palace have had 16 common English Premier League opponents and one’s collateral form analysis, which removes emotion from the equation and tests whether the ladder is telling the truth approaching the halfway point of the tournament, favours the Eagles 10-3-3.
Both Bournemouth and Crystal Palace are enjoying good runs in the English Premier League but one cannot construct an argument for the Cherries holding clear favouritism over the Eagles. One’s collateral form analysis backs up the English Premier League ladder – eight rungs and 10 points separate the teams – and Crystal Palace’s composition means that it is better suited to playing away from Selhurst Park. Crystal Palace is 5-1-2 on the road in the English Premier League – the Eagles have the division’s third best away record, while Bournemouth’s home statistics are well below average.
BetVictor are offering odds of 21/103.10+2102.102.10-0.48 about Crystal Palace getting the better of Bournemouth at the Vitality Stadium – the Eagles should be about 3/22.50+1501.501.50-0.67.
Finally, it is impossible to suggest anything other than an interest in Leicester for its English Premier League match against Liverpool at Anfield because one again, Coral is taking the proverbial with its odds of 16/54.20+3203.203.20-0.31 about a Foxes success.
Most bookmakers are quoting Liverpool at odds on to win the Boxing Day game even though one’s English Premier League collateral form analysis favours Leicester fairly strongly. Liverpool and Leicester have had 16 common English Premier League opponents and the Foxes enjoy a 10-2-4 collateral form edge over the Reds. Again, even if one moves the two ties to Liverpool’s side of the ledger, the Reds trail Leicester 6-10. According to Coral, a Liverpool win is more likely than any other result. That makes no sense whatsoever and Leicester appeals either straight up or double chance.
West Ham to beat Aston Villa
26th December 15:00 GMT
C Palace to beat Bournemouth
26th December 15:00 GMT
Leicester to beat Liverpool
26th December 15:00 GMT
Eric has been a sports journalist for over 20 years and has travelled the world covering top sporting events for a number of publications. He also has a passion for betting and uses his in-depth knowledge of the sports world to pinpoint outstanding odds and value betting opportunities.
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