Drawn to draw in majority of matches

2014-12-19

Apart from Bayern Munchen, one finds it difficult to name a team that represents a rock-solid bet in the 17th round of German Bundesliga matches as the season reaches half way.

Unfortunately, someone has informed bookmakers that Bayern Munchen has won 13 of its 16 German Bundesliga games and drawn the other three so they are not offering fancy odds about Josep Guardiola’s side winning at 11th-placed Mainz.

Bayern Munchen and Mainz have 16 common German Bundesliga opponents and one’s view is that 12 of those collateral form lines favour the current champion. However, one’s collateral form analysis of the other eight German Bundesliga matches in the final round before the winter break suggests that there could be some value in backing a lot of draws.

One’s view is that second-placed Wolfsburg enjoys a 10-2-4 German Bundesliga collateral form line advantage over Koln and that Leverkusen leads Frankfurt 9-3-4 but the former is short odds to beat a team with the second best road record in the competition and the latter is unreliable and playing a side that has featured in several crazy matches recently.

That leaves five German Bundesliga games – Augsburg versus Monchengladbach, Bremen versus Dortmund, Stuttgart versus Paderborn, Hertha versus Hoffenheim and Freiburg versus Hannover – in which one would argue that one’s collateral form analysis points to bookmakers overpricing draws.

Augsburg and Monchengladbach have had 16 common German Bundesliga opponents and one’s view is that six of those collateral form lines favour the home team, one of them favour the away team and one of them favours neither team. With regards to the other German Bundesliga matches of interest, one’s view is Bremen trails Dortmund 6-1-9, Stuttgart trails Paderborn 7-1-8, Hertha is tied with Hoffenheim on 7-2-7 and Freiburg leads Hannover 8-2-6.

BetVictor and Paddy Power are offering odds of 12/5 3.40 +240 2.40 2.40 -0.42  about a German Bundesliga draw between Augsburg and Monchengladbach, Betfair Sportsbook is offering odds of 7/2 4.50 +350 3.50 3.50 -0.29  about a draw between Bremen and Dortmund, Bwin is offering odds of 31/10 4.10 +310 3.10 3.10 -0.32  about a draw between Stuttgart and Paderborn, BetVictor, Coral and William Hill are offering odds of 5/2 3.50 +250 2.50 2.50 -0.40  about a draw between Hertha and Hoffenheim and Betfair Sportsbook is offering odds of 5/2 3.50 +250 2.50 2.50 -0.40  about a draw between Freiburg and Hannover. Level-stake single bets on draws in those German Bundesliga games require two hits to produce a profit.

Usually one regards multiple betting as the domain of mug punters but one is willing to make an exception and suggest a small-stake Lucky 31 wager on draws in those five German Bundesliga matches. Obviously, it is impossible to get all the best odds from one bookmaker but, roughly speaking, a one-unit bet would return about 3,000 units if successful.

With regards to German Bundesliga exotics, the pick of the plays is under nine and a half corner kicks in the game between Schalke and Hamburg at odds of 73/100 1.73 -137 0.73 -1.37 0.73  with Bet365.

Schalke has taken 46 corner kicks and defended 76 corner kicks in its 16 German Bundesliga matches so its games are averaging 7.63 corner kicks. Hamburg has taken 72 corner kicks and defended 74 corner kicks in its 16 German Bundesliga matches so its games are averaging 9.13 corner kicks. Bookmakers are reluctant to set corner-kick lines lower than nine and a half but the raw statistics suggest that they should have gone up at eight and a half.

Tips Summary

Lucky 31 on all draws

20th Dec 14.30 GMT – Augsburg and Monchengladbach 12/5 3.40 +240 2.40 2.40 -0.42
20th Dec 14.30 GMT – Bremen and Dortmund 7/2 4.50 +350 3.50 3.50 -0.29
20th Dec 14.30 GMT – Stuttgart and Paderborn 31/10 4.10 +310 3.10 3.10 -0.32
21st Dec 14.30 GMT – Hertha and Hoffenheim 5/2 3.50 +250 2.50 2.50 -0.40
21st Dec 16.30 GMT – Freiburg and Hannover 5/2 3.50 +250 2.50 2.50 -0.40

Where to Bet: BetVictor, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, Bwin, Coral, William Hill

Schalke v Hamburg Under 9.5 Corners
20th Dec 14.30 GMT
Odds:  73/100 1.73 -137 0.73 -1.37 0.73
Where to Bet: Bet365