Antonio's late goal gave West Ham a 1-0 win over Bournemouth earlier in the season.

Draw Conclusion that Cherries and Irons Evenly Matched

Antonio's late goal gave West Ham a 1-0 win over Bournemouth earlier in the season.

This weekend’s English FA Cup quarter-finals means that there is an abbreviated English Premier League round to assess but there are value bets among the five games.

According to one’s English Premier League collateral form analysis, which one believes is a better way of lining up teams than trusting the raw ladder, particularly at this incomplete stage of a season, you will struggle to find sides more evenly matched than Bournemouth and West Ham.

West Ham is three rungs and six points above Bournemouth on the English Premier League ladder but, according to one’s collateral form analysis of their respective 27 matches, the Irons and the Cherries are level on 7-5-7. That the reverse English Premier League game resulted in a 1-0 home win for West Ham also augments one’s argument that there is very little to choose between the Irons and Bournemouth.

Neither Bournemouth nor West Ham screams out for outright support. Bournemouth has not won any of its nine matches across all competitions this year, while West Ham has only beaten Middlesbrough, Crystal Palace and Southampton since punters threw out their old calendars. The draw is the universal favourite with bookmakers betting on Saturday’s English Premier League game and several of them, including BetVictor and SkyBet, are quoting odds of +250  about Bournemouth and West Ham sharing the spoils. One thinks that those odds understate the probability.

Another English Premier League match in which there is value in backing the draw is Saturday’s game between relegation candidates Hull and Swansea. Many bookmakers, including Betfred and Marathonbet, are offering odds of +230  about Hull and Swansea picking up a point apiece in their fight to remain among England’s football elite.

According to one’s English Premier League collateral form analysis, Hull trails Swansea 8-2-9 but the Tigers have the advantage of this weekend’s match taking place at its KCOM Stadium. Hull and Swansea have met twice this term and both games have ended in 2-0 Tigers wins but both matches were 0-0 after 78 minutes so the Swans can count themselves unlucky to have tasted defeat on both occasions.

Head-to-head form fans will back Hull and recent form fans will support Swansea but it strikes one as the type of English Premier League game for which there should be no clear favourite and, when that is the case, the draw is where value-conscious punters should invest their money.

Finally, fair play to West Bromwich for attaining eighth place on the English Premier League ladder but the Baggies are flat-track bullies which should be opposed when they visit Everton in another of Saturday’s divisional matches.

West Bromwich is 0-1-7 in its eight English Premier League games versus higher ranked opponents, including losing 1-2 at home to Everton in August. According to one’s English Premier League collateral form analysis, West Bromwich trails Everton 7-1-11 and the difference between the Baggies and the Toffees is particularly stark when one only rates matches featuring the top flight’s leading lights.

Everton has lost just one of its 13 English Premier League home games and that by a single-goal margin in its most intense Goodison Park clash, December’s local derby against Liverpool. Everton is 6-2-0 in its eight English Premier League home matches versus lower ranked rivals and the Toffees deserve to be above West Bromwich on the ladder.

At odds of -149  with several bookmakers, including Coral, Ladbrokes and Paddy Power, Everton to beat West Bromwich is one’s third and final English Premier League selection.

Tips Summary

Bournemouth and West Ham to Draw
Saturday 11th March, 15:00 GMT
Odds:  +250

Hull and Swansea to Draw
Saturday 11th March, 15:00 GMT
Odds:  +230

Everton to beat West Brom
Saturday 11th March, 15:00 GMT
Odds:  -149

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