Low scoring has been one of the key narratives of UEFA Euro 2016 and the consensus among bookmakers is that Saturday’s quarter-final between Germany and Italy is likely to be light on for goal-scoring chances and, ultimately, goals.
However, one thinks that there is value in backing over one and a half goals when Germany and Italy fight for the right to face either France or Iceland in the UEFA Euro 2016 semi-finals.
First, Germany and Italy have recent history having met in a Munich friendly just three months ago. Neither Germany nor Italy deployed its preferred starting line-up but the fact that the game produced five goals is hard to ignore. Indeed, each of the four matches between Germany and Italy over the last five years and a bit years have gone over one and a half goals with tallies of two (twice), three and five.
And second, Italy central defensive midfielder Thiago Motta is suspended and there are an incredible 16 players across the Italians and Germany that will walk a disciplinary tightrope in the third UEFA Euro 2016 quarter-final – if any of those men receive either a yellow card or red card they will miss the semi-final should their team reach the last four. Of the projected Germany and Italy starters, three of the German back four and each of the Italian back three are one bad tackle away from an untimely UEFA Euro 2016 ban. Self preservation among defenders on both sides may result in their attacker opponents getting more sights of goal.
Over 1.5 goals is quoted at odds of 3/51.60-1670.60-1.670.60 with Betfair
Another exotic betting option on the third UEFA Euro 2016 quarter-final that appeals is over three and a half Italy corner kicks at odds of 67/1001.67-1490.67-1.490.67 with Bet365. Italy has forced over three and a half corner kicks in each of its four UEFA Euro 2016 matches, including five corners in its last-16 tie against a Spain team that dominated possession in much the same way that one expects that Germany will versus the Italians. Three and a half corner kicks is not a high line for Italy to get over and, remember, Germany conceded 12 corners in its UEFA Euro 2016 Group C game against Ukraine.
Italy has received plaudits for its UEFA Euro 2016 displays, not least because the tournament began with the Italians in almost no-one’s title tips. But Germany has done very little wrong itself, including being the only side not to let in a goal during UEFA Euro 2016. Germany coach Joachim Low appears to have settled upon playing Mario Gomez in the number nine role and the Bayern Munchen star has rewarded his manager’s faith with goals in consecutive matches and, if the Germans had beaten Northern Ireland by the margin that their play deserved, they would be the talk of Europe and the clear favourites for the championship trophy.
Coral and William Hill are offering odds of 13/102.30+1301.301.30-0.77 about the third UEFA Euro 2016 quarter-final being won by Germany in normal time and that rates as one’s third and final pick.
Germany v Italy Over 1.5 Goals
Saturday 2nd July, 20:00 GMT
Eric has been a sports journalist for over 20 years and has travelled the world covering top sporting events for a number of publications. He also has a passion for betting and uses his in-depth knowledge of the sports world to pinpoint outstanding odds and value betting opportunities.
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