After tipping not one but two double-digit winners in last week’s outsiders article – one hopes that you backed Athlone and University College Dublin to beat St Patrick’s and Derry respectively in the Irish Premier Division – one has a very difficult task to come up with another long-priced winner.
What one has found of interest is a bet on the UEFA Europa League Group D game between Salzburg and Dinamo Zagreb in Austria. One has opposed Salzburg on a few occasions this season because, after it took the betting world months to work out that the Red Bull-backed team was worth backing on handicap lines as it swept all before it in the Austrian Bundesliga last term, the betting world is yet to work out that the side is not as impressive as it was last season.
Salzburg has gone from being one of Europe’s underrated teams to one of the continent’s overrated sides. Totesport is offering industry-low odds of -250 that Salzburg defeats Dinamo Zagreb in Austria and, while one concedes that the favourite has a decent chance of winning the UEFA Europa League Group D match, anyone who takes those odds should refrain from betting to protect their financial nest egg.
It is tough to line up the form of domestic leagues but one does have a couple of UEFA Europa League Group D rounds to assess, rounds that throw up recent collateral form lines. Salzburg has drawn 2-2 at home to Celtic and won 2-1 away to Astra. Dinamo Zagreb has lost 0-1 at Celtic and won 5-1 at home to Astra. Mathematicians who have studied thousands of football results have commented that home advantage is worth approximately half a goal so, using that figure, one can say that Dinamo Zagreb performed better than Salzburg against Astra and that the Celtic form lines cancel out each other.
Admittedly four UEFA Europa League Group D games is a small sample size but it does point to Dinamo Zagreb being well over the odds to beat Salzburg in Austria when several bookmakers, including Bet365, Betfred and Unibet, are offering odds of +550 about the away team prevailing.
But this article is not satisfied with odds of +550 . Its purpose is to, wherever possible, highlight double-digit options that are not only over the odds but also have a reasonable chance of generating a positive result. And, therefore, one is looking beyond a Dinamo Zagreb win and settling on a Dinamo Zagreb win in which both teams score.
Even though Salzburg is top of the Austrian Bundesliga after 12 rounds – it has posted nine wins and three losses – half of its games have seen goals for both sides. Furthermore, in its half a dozen UEFA Champions League and UEFA Europa League matches, Salzburg has managed to keep just one clean sheet and that was at home to Azerbaijani minnow Qarabag.
Salzburg’s all-out attacking style backfires from time to time, even in the Austrian Bundesliga. Dinamo Zagreb is four points clear of the handy Rijeka team at the top of the Croatian 1 HNL ladder following 12 rounds, it has beaten Rijeka 2-1 on the road in its domestic league and, as one outlined earlier in this article, its UEFA Europa League Group D form is better that of its Thursday opponent.
Coral is offering odds of +1000 that Dinamo Zagreb beats Salzburg in Austria and that both teams score. One thinks that is a speculative bet that makes a good deal of sense.
Dinamo Zagreb to beat Salzburg and BTTS
23rd October 20:05 GMT
Where to Bet: Coral
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