Bayern Munchen and Dortmund will clash in the German DFB Pokal for the fifth consecutive edition of the knockout competition when they contest this season’s final.
Both Bayern Munchen and Dortmund have won two of their four recent German DFB Pokal meetings, with each team registering one win in a game that went beyond normal time. Bookmakers are betting that Bayern will do the double of the German Bundesliga and German DFB Pokal by beating Dortmund in Berlin when the two rivals meet again on Saturday.
According to one’s German Bundesliga collateral form data, the German DFB Pokal match odds are spot on. Bayern Munchen has a 9-2-6 advantage over Dortmund, with Pep Guardiola’s side outperforming Thomas Tuchel’s team in their league clashes against Schalke (fifth), Hertha (seventh), Wolfsburg (eighth), Koln (ninth), Hamburg (10th), Bremen (13th), Darmstadt (14th) and Hoffenheim (15th), plus having the better of the direct head to head. Dortmund outperformed Bayern in their German Bundesliga games versus Leverkusen (third), Monchengladbach (fourth), Mainz (sixth), Ingolstadt (11th), Augsburg (12th) and Frankfurt (16th). Bayern and Dortmund matched each other’s German Bundesliga exploits against Stuttgart (17th) and Hannover (18th). A German Bundesliga collateral form edge of 9-2-6, including head-to-head supremacy, entitles Bayern to be trading at odds of around even money to defeat Dortmund in Berlin.
There will be some punters who think that Bayern Munchen is a German DFB Pokal final good thing because of the furore surrounding it, Dortmund and the latter’s skipper, Mats Hummels, who has announced that he will be swapping sides during the summer. Many Dortmund fans do not want Hummels to line up versus Bayern in the German DFB Pokal final but one cannot see BVB omitting their captain and finest defender. One understands why some punters may decide to get stuck into Bayern but one thinks that the favourite’s odds are correct and that it does not represent obvious value.
Consequently, one is looking away from the German DFB Pokal final’s main market in search of something good. And one thinks that under two and a half goals is the best wager, particularly with Marathonbet offering odds of +108 .
Bookmakers are quoting decent prices about Bayern Munich and Dortmund combining for under two and a half goals because the bulk of their German Bundesliga statistics scream the opposite – 21 of Bayern’s 34 divisional games went over two and a half goals, while BVB’s strike rate was 24 out of 34. But both of Bayern’s German Bundesliga away matches at the other medallists, Dortmund and Leverkusen, ended goalless and, furthermore, BVB boss Tuchel set up his side in such a way that its defenders nullified the champion’s attackers.
Dortmund employed a 3-5-2 formation in its second German Bundesliga game versus Bayern Munchen, with Hummels moving out of the defensive line at regular intervals to track the movements of the likes of Robert Lewandowski and Thomas Muller. Tuchel outthought Guardiola and the result was a match in which Dortmund limited Bayern to a few chances.
It is realistic to think that Guardiola will have come up with a counterplan to combat Tuchel’s tactics but the Bayern Munchen manager is not a miracle worker and there is nothing to say that his response will be a successful one. The odds that are available about under two and a half goals do not suggest that five of the last seven meetings between Bayern and Dortmund have rewarded punters who have backed that option and it represents Saturday’s finest investment.
Marco Fritz will referee a match between Bayern Munchen and Dortmund for the second time this season – he showed four yellow cards in the former’s 5-1 German Bundesliga home victory in October. Fritz has controlled 28 domestic games this term, brandishing 112 yellow cards and four red cards.
Bayern Munich v Borussia Dortmund – Under 2.5 Goals
Saturday 21st May, 19:00 GMT