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In terms of Spanish Primera Division collateral form data, Round 25’s third biggest edge belongs to Deportivo and that is why one is listing a team that has not celebrated a win since just before Christmas as one’s headline selection.
Deportivo overcame being reduced to 10 men midway through the second half of its Spanish Primera Division home match versus Eibar on 19 December to record a 2-0 win, since which time Depor have been the opposite of Super – they have gone on a 0-6-2 run in the league and crashed out of the Spanish Copa del Rey 1-4 on aggregate to second-tier Mirandes.
Normally one would run a million miles away from a side that has gone 10 games across all events without a win but a combination of Deportivo’s Spanish Primera Division numbers stacking up well against Espanyol and the latter’s abysmal run of results means that Super Depor get top billing at odds of 21/10 3.10 +210 2.10 2.10 -0.48 with BetVictor to win Saturday’s match.
One could argue that Deportivo is unbeaten in five Spanish Primera Division games but there is nothing positive that one can eke out of Espanyol’s recent performances. Espanyol won each of its first two matches under Constantin Galca, who won the Spanish Copa del Rey with the Budgerigars as a player in 2000, but the Romanian manager’s honeymoon period is well and truly over. Espanyol has just two draws to show for its last 10 outings across all competitions and two of its last three games have resulted in five-goal-plus losses.
According to one’s Spanish Primera Division collateral form analysis, Deportivo enjoys a 13-3-3 lead over Espanyol and that lead is too big to ignore when Super Depor are trading at longer odds than the Budgerigars this weekend. Deportivo is proving mighty difficult to beat in the Spanish Primera Division – only Barcelona and Real Madrid have lost more matches than Super Depor in the first 24 rounds – whereas just Levante has experienced more defeats than Espanyol, plus September’s reverse fixture ended 3-0 to one’s pick.
One of football’s great cliches is that form goes out of the window in derbies but one is hoping that Sunday’s Basque argument between Athletic and Sociedad goes to script.
Athletic and Sociedad may be relatively close on the Spanish Primera Division ladder – the former is seventh and the latter is 10th – but one’s collateral form figures suggest that there is a significant difference between the local rivals. Athletic holds a 11-4-4 Spanish Primera Division collateral form advantage over Sociedad, with the Bilbao team leading the San Sebastian side 10-4-1 if one excludes their results versus the division’s worst four outfits.
Skybet and Bet365 are listing Athletic at odds of 4/5 1.80 -125 0.80 -1.25 0.80 to end its run of seven derbies against Sociedad without a win and that is a fair bet, as is Real Madrid at odds of 19/25 1.76 -132 0.76 -1.32 0.76 with 888Sport and Unibet to triumph at Malaga on Sunday.
Malaga escaped from the Santiago Bernabeu with a 0-0 Spanish Primera Division draw in September but the onus will be on the Anchovies to play a more entertaining brand of football on their own pitch and that may not suit them versus a Real Madrid team that rarely fails to hit the back of the net.
Just twice in 24 Spanish Primera Division rounds has Malaga lost a game by more than one goal so one does not forsee Real Madrid running away with the match but it is hard for one to overlook collateral form figures of 14-3-2. Several bookmakers offering winning margin betting and Real Madrid to get up by exactly one goal at odds of 11/4 3.75 +275 2.75 2.75 -0.36 with Skybet and Bet365 seems a logical wager in the circumstances.
Finally, here are one’s Spanish Primera Division collateral form analysis results for every one of Round 25’s 10 games. The asterisk signifies the direct head-to-head winner.
Levante 5-5-9* versus Getafe
Las Palmas 1-1-17* versus Barcelona
Espanyol 3-3-13* versus Deportivo
Betis 9*-2-8 versus Gijon
Celta 6*-4-9 versus Eibar
Vallecano 5-1-12* versus Sevilla
Malaga 2*-3-14 versus Real Madrid
Athletic 11*-4-4 versus Sociedad
Granada 5-1-13* versus Valencia
Atletico Madrid 10-3-6* versus Villarreal
Deportivo La Coruna to beat Espanyol
Saturday 20th February, 17:15 GMT
Odds: 21/10 3.10 +210 2.10 2.10 -0.48
Real Madrid to beat Malaga
Sunday 21st February, 15:00 GMT
Odds: 19/25 1.76 -132 0.76 -1.32 0.76
Athletic Bilbao to beat Real Sociedad
Sunday 21st February, 17:15 GMT
Odds: 4/5 1.80 -125 0.80 -1.25 0.80
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