It is well worth waiting until Monday’s last match of the Spanish Primera Division round when Espanyol entertains Getafe because the Budgerigars are false favourites.
Espanyol is below Getafe on the Spanish Primera Division ladder after 12 rounds of action yet bookmakers are betting on Monday’s game as though the Budgerigars are as good as Getafe, if not better. The Spanish Primera Division ladder does not support that opinion and, more importantly, neither does the statistical way that one analyses matches.
Barcelona, Real Madrid, Sevilla, Villarreal, Sociedad, Leganes, Betis, Levante, Celta, Deportivo and Alaves are the 11 Spanish Primera Division sides that have run into both Espanyol and Getafe this season. According to one’s Spanish Primera Division collateral form analysis, Getafe holds a 5-4-2 lead over Espanyol so, even accounting for home advantage, the Deep Blues have an excellent chance of earning one or more points from their Monday game.
Getafe beat Espanyol 3-1 in the most recent Spanish Primera Division match between the teams so that is another positive for one’s top punting pick, which is to back the Deep Blues to either defeat the Budgerigars or to take part in a draw at odds of -123 with 888Sport.
Deportivo and Athletic occupy adjacent rungs on the Spanish Primera Division ladder but bookmakers think that the Lions are superior to Super Depor given the markets on Sunday’s game. Yet again, one thinks that the layers are wrong and odds of +180 with BetVictor are good value.
Six Spanish Primera Division sides – Atletico Madrid, Getafe, Girona, Eibar, Malaga and Las Palmas – have lined up against both Deportivo and Athletic this season. According to one’s Spanish Primera Division collateral form analysis, Deportivo enjoys a 3-1-2 edge over Athletic and there is a little bit of a derby element to the fixture as well.
Another reason that one is keen to oppose Athletic away to Deportivo in the Spanish Primera Division is that the Lions will be backing up from their UEFA Europa League Group J home match versus Hertha. The UEFA Europa League program works against mid-ranking teams in Europe’s top divisions because they do not have the strength in depth to compete strongly on two fronts given their jam-packed schedules.
One’s third and final Spanish Primera Division bet is the draw in Sunday’s game between Villarreal and Sevilla at odds of +240 with BetVictor.
Atletico Madrid, Getafe, Girona, Espanyol, Athletic, Eibar, Malaga and Las Palmas are the eight Spanish Primera Division sides that have encountered both Villarreal and Sevilla this season and there appears to be little between the Yellow Submarine and the White and Reds. According to one’s Spanish Primera Division collateral form analysis, Villarreal holds a 3-4-1 advantage over Sevilla but the Yellow Submarine will have two fewer days to recover from their midweek UEFA assignment than the White and Reds so one thinks that the draw makes much more appeal than either of the teams.
There is Spanish Primera Division head-to-head data to back up one’s selection. Neither of last term’s Spanish Primera Division clashes between Villarreal and Sevilla featured a goal and one thinks that a third consecutive championship draw between the Yellow Submarine and the White and Reds seems more likely than the available betting odds.
Second-ranked Valencia and top-of-the-ladder Barcelona will meet in the match of the Spanish Primera Division round but one thinks that the bookmaking fraternity has framed its markets correctly with Barca at a shade of odds on.
Getafe or Draw – Double Chance
Monday 27th November, 20:00 GMT
Deportivo to beat Athletic Bilbao
Sunday 26th November, 11:00 GMT
Villarreal and Sevilla to Draw
Sunday 26th November, 17:30 GMT