Data Points to High-Scoring Game in Freiburg

Freiburg beat Bremen 3-1 earlier in the Bundesliga season.

Freiburg and Bremen are the German Bundesliga teams that have been kindest to over-two-and-a-half-goals punters so it is a no-brainer to pick the Brazilians of Breisgau and the River Islanders to go over that line on Saturday.

Eighteen of Freiburg’s 25 German Bundesliga games have gone over two and a half goals, including eight of its 12 home matches. And it is similar story for Bremen – 18 of its 25 German Bundesliga games have gone over two and a half goals, including eight of its 12 away matches. Freiburg visited Bremen in October and the Brazilians of Breisgau won 3-1 with the German Bundesliga game’s third goal occurring in the 67th minute. The German Bundesliga is a high-scoring competition and no sides have more compelling statistics than Freiburg and Bremen so one cannot look past odds of -122  with Marathonbet about over two and a half goals.

Freiburg is four rungs and six points ahead of Bremen on the German Bundesliga ladder but, according to one’s collateral form analysis, there is very little to choose between the teams with the Brazilians of Breisgau enjoying an 8-2-7 advantage over the River Islanders. That number and one’s view that Bremen has outperformed Freiburg versus most of the German Bundesliga’s top sides leads one to think that the River Islanders will give as good as they get against the Brazilians of Breisgau in an open, competitive match.

The German Bundesliga round will kick off when Hertha and Hoffenheim clash in Friday’s game between the fifth- and fourth-placed teams respectively. One has been in the camp of Hoffenheim for many German Bundesliga rounds this term and one is not about to jump off the Hoffe bandwagon. Well, kind of – one is picking Hoffenheim to draw at Hertha, an option that is available at odds of +230  with several bookmakers, including Bet365, BetVictor and Bwin.

Hoffenheim is just one rung above Hertha on the German Bundesliga ladder but, according to one’s collateral form analysis, Hoffe holds an 11-0-6 edge over the Old Lady. Moreover, Hoffenheim’s German Bundesliga collateral form lead over Hertha is 10-0-3 if one excludes those matches featuring the bottom four – Wolfsburg, Hamburg, Ingolstadt and Darmstadt. One is convinced that Hoffenheim is a fair bit better than Hertha if venue is not a consideration.

However, one cannot ignore Hertha’s German Bundesliga home numbers of 10-1-1 and Hoffeheim’s away statistics of 3-7-2. Only Bayern Munchen and Bremen have earned German Bundesliga points at Hertha, while Hoffenheim has not won away to a side ranked higher than 11th. The draw is the outsider of Friday’s three German Bundesliga options and yet one thinks it is the easily option around which to build a strong case.

Finally, one is tipping that Saturday’s German Bundesliga derby between Schalke and Dortmund will go the way of the Black and Yellows at odds of +105  with Marathonbet.

Schalke has been one of the disappointments of the German Bundesliga season, registering just one victory over a team positioned above it on the ladder and that was a home win over a Hertha side that does not travel well. Schalke has come up short versus most of the German Bundesliga’s top teams and one’s collateral form analysis suggests that the Royal Blues are vastly inferior to Dortmund – the Black and Yellows boast an 11-2-4 advantage over their fierce rivals.

Tips Summary

Freiburg v Bremen – over 2.5 goals
Saturday 1st April, 14:30 BST
Odds:  -122

Hertha Berlin & Hoffenheim to Draw
Friday 31st March, 19:30 BST
Odds:  +230

Dortmund to beat Schalke
Saturday 1st April, 14:30 BST
Odds:  +105

Borussia Dortmund
Hertha Berlin
Werder Bremen

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