Dangerous Dortmund is Bayern Munchen’s bogey team

Not many teams have a better recent head-to-head record against Bayern Munchen than Dortmund so, if you are looking for a speculative punt this weekend, backing BVB to beat FC Hollywood in the German Bundesliga is a feasible option.

Unsurprisingly for a team that has won each of its last seven home matches across all competitions, Bayern Munchen is trading at short odds to defeat Dortmund and increase its German Bundesliga advantage over BVB to 17 points after 10 rounds. If the German Bundesliga title race is not over already, it will be if Bayern Munchen beats Dortmund and, quite possibly, sends BVB into the relegation zone.

What appeals about a speculative punt on Dortmund is this: BVB boasts a pretty good recent record versus Bayern Munchen and, let’s face facts, anything other than three points for BVB at the Allianz Arena and their German Bundesliga title quest is over. As poorly as Dortmund has kicked off its German Bundesliga campaign – two wins, one draw and six losses sees BVB 15th on the league ladder – it has given produced some excellent performances amidst the dross.

Dortmund was outstanding in its 2-0 UEFA Champions League Group D home victory over Arsenal. Indeed, Dortmund has given not one, not two but three great performances in UEFA Champions League Group D, defeating Anderlecht, Arsenal and Galatasaray without conceding a goal to put itself within touching distance of a place in the competition’s last 16.

Bayern Munchen has lost just one meaningful game this term and it was to Dortmund in the German Super Cup. Yes, one knows that the match took place at Signal Iduna Park and neither Dortmund nor Bayern Munchen was at full strength, plus one could argue that the German Super Cup is, to all intents and purposes, a pre-season friendly with a trophy. But it would be wrong to put a line through Dortmund’s 2-0 German Super Cup win because, once again, it showed that BVB’s style poses problems for that of Bayern Munchen.

Dortmund has not lost any of its last three games against Bayern Munchen if one excludes extra time and it won last term’s corresponding German Bundesliga fixture 3-0. Bayern Munchen had 71 per cent possession and led the corner kick count 12-2 but it was Dortmund that created the most chances – 6-4 according to German magazine Kicker – as BVB boss Jurgen Klopp outthought FC Hollywood coach Pep Guardiola.

That is the beauty of backing Dortmund at long odds to beat Bayern Munchen. One knows that Bayern Munchen is not going to deviate from its tactics and one knows that Dortmund has a proven track record of disrupting FC Hollywood’s flow.

Several bookmakers, including 888sport, Boylesports and Unibet, are offering odds of +600  that Dortmund shocks Bayern Munchen in the most glamorous fixture on the German Bundesliga calendar. Anyone who backs Dortmund knows that it is going to have a crack because playing for a draw is of no use to it given the state of the German Bundesliga ladder. Also, Bayern Munchen’s players are human beings and, if they do not get on top of their Dortmund counterpart early on, it would be natural for them to get nervous about the outcome.

In summary, ignore the German Bundesliga ladder: Dortmund is, until proven otherwise, the second best side in Germany and it should not be available at odds of +600  to win any match, even away to the defending champion. If one wants to be even more speculative in one’s betting, Coral is offering odds of +1400  about a Dortmund win to nil. Bayern Munchen has not scored a normal-time goal versus Dortmund in any of the last three meetings between the illustrious teams.

Tips Summary

Dortmund to beat Bayern / WTN
1st November 17:30 GMT
Odds: +600  /  +1400
Where to Bet: 888sport, Boylesports, CoralUnibet

Bayern Munich
Super Cup

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