Cut corners to profits with Celta
Believe it or not, there is a sensible, statistically sound way to oppose Real Madrid in its Spanish Primera Division match versus Celta at the Santiago Bernabeu on Saturday.
Only a fool – no, make that a brave fool – would bet against Real Madrid beating Celta and extending its Spanish Primera Division winning run to 12 games. But one does not have to be a fool to back Celta to have more corner kicks than Real, an option for which bookmakers are guaranteed to offer long odds about the away team in spite of this season’s data.
Real Madrid has played 13 Spanish Primera Division matches and, incredibly for one of the world’s most attacking sides, it has taken three fewer corner kicks than it has conceded. Yes, that is correct – Real has taken 65 Spanish Primera Division corner kicks and conceded 68 to its opponents. One has triple checked Real’s corner-kick data with a range of strong sources and all the numbers come out as the same.
In only six of its 13 Spanish Primera Division games – three out of six at home and three out of seven on the road – has Real Madrid taken more corner kicks than its opponent. Eight corner kicks is the most that Real has taken in any of its 13 Spanish Primera Division matches and four of its wins on the exotic betting market have been by single corner kicks.
And it is not just in the Spanish Primera Division that Real Madrid has been anything but the corner-kick king. Real has won each of its five UEFA Champions League Group B games but it has only taken more corner kicks than its opponent in two of those matches with its tally being 32 for and 26 against.
Like Real Madrid, Celta has taken part in 13 Spanish Primera Division games but its corner-kick statistics are much, much better than those of the UEFA Champions League title holder. Celta has taken 90 corner kicks and conceded 50 corner kicks in its 13 Spanish Primera Division matches, winning on the exotic betting market eight times. Only Barcelona (92) has taken more Spanish Primera Division corner kicks than Celta and only Atletico Madrid (35) and Barca (41) has conceded fewer corner kicks than Eduardo Berizzo’s side. Celta has taken 10 or more corner kicks in three of its 13 Spanish Primera Division games and it has limited its opponent to fewer than three corner kicks on half a dozen occasions.
Bookmakers have no choice other than to install Real Madrid as the corner-kicks favourite when it hosts Celta in Spanish Primera Division action on Saturday. Ninety-nine per cent of punters do not review statistics before betting and, with Real at prohibitively short odds to collect three points from the match, Carlo Ancelotti’s team has to be the favourite on most of the game-related exotic lines.
One expects bookmakers to post their corner-kick lines for the Spanish Primera Division match between Real Madrid and Celta about 48 hours before kick off. Shop around for the best odds about Celta taking more corner kicks than Real and, if you want to play it a bit safer, consider backing the away side in receipt of a handicap start. However, one thinks that the clear value lies in backing Celta off scratch on what is, after all, an exotic betting market.
Update – Boylesports are offering a massive +550 on Celta to win the corner market, so we’re snapping their hands off on that one! If you want a safer option, then amazingly Sky Bet are going +100 on Celta +4 corners.