Chievo Overpriced to Confirm Superiority over Milan

Chievo are 7th in Serie A after last week's 3-2 win over Verona.

Chievo is the clear value play on Italian Serie A’s midweek program if you go through this season’s results objectively and do not fall for the glamour of its Wednesday opponent.

The derby factor dissuaded one from including Chievo among one’s Italian Serie A selections in last weekend’s ninth round of matches but one is going to take a punt on the Flying Donkeys in their home game against Milan. The reason is simple: bookmakers are vastly underestimating Chievo, at least in comparison to Milan, on this term’s Italian Serie A results and we are more than one-quarter of the way through the competition so the sample size is fairly significant.

Chievo and Milan have faced four of the same Italian Serie A teams – Lazio, Genoa, Udinese and Cagliari – and, according to one’s way of thinking using collateral form analysis, the Flying Donkeys have outperformed the Red and Blacks versus each of those sides to enjoy a 4-0-0 advantage. The knock on Chievo’s Italian Serie A collateral form lead over Milan is that Lazio is the only team on the top half of the Italian Serie A ladder that both the Flying Donkeys and the Red and Blacks have faced but the odds on offer about a home victory more than make up for that. Chievo is a heavy home underdog at  +270   with BetVictor when one could argue vociferously that the Flying Donkeys are superior to Milan based on Italian Serie A results.

Napoli is flying high at the top of the Italian Serie A ladder and it rates a good bet at  -294   with 888Sport to beat Genoa on Wednesday.

Internazionale ended Napoli’s 100 percent Italian Serie A record this season but do not forget that the Black and Blues are second on the ladder and unbeaten themselves so, while undoubtedly disappointing, there was no shame in the Partenopei drawing 0-0 at home with their fellow title contenders. Genoa, even on the road, ought to be a much easier challenge for Napoli given this term’s Italian Serie A results. Napoli and Genoa have encountered four of the same Italian Serie A teams – Internazionale, Lazio, Bologna and Cagliari – and, according to one’s collateral form analysis, the Partenopei boasts a 3-1-0 edge over the Red and Blues. Genoa drew 0-0 at Milan on Sunday but the Red and Blues had a one-player advantage from the 25th minute onwards and still could not break the deadlock.

One’s third and final Italian Serie A pick is Fiorentina to get the better of Torino, also on Wednesday. Fiorentina is a shade of odds-on at  -118   with Bet365 and one thinks that the Purples should be a little bit deeper into red numbers.

Fiorentina is above Torino on the Italian Serie A ladder despite the Purples having a tougher early schedule than the Maroons – Stefano Piolo’s men have faced four of the leading seven sides, three of them in enemy territory. According to one’s Italian Serie A collateral form analysis, the purpose of which is to compare apples with apples to determine the true merits of teams about to go into battle, Fiorentina and Torino have lined up against six of the same sides – Juventus, Sampdoria, Bologna, Udinese, Verona and Benevento – and the Purples hold a 3-1-2 lead over the Maroons.

Other Italian Serie A wagers that did not quite make one’s short list include Cagliari to defeat Benevento and Sassuolo to draw with Udinese. One could not bring oneself to steam into Cagliari at relatively short odds even though it does boast a clear Italian Serie A collateral form advantage over its bottom-of-the-ladder visitor, while it was more a case of not wanting to back Sassuolo at its market price than wanting to support Udinese to eke out an away point.

Tips Summary

Chievo to beat Milan
Wednesday 25th October, 19:45 GMT
Odds:  +270

Napoli to beat Genoa
Wednesday 25th October, 19:45 GMT
Odds:  -294

Fiorentina to beat Torino
Wednesday 25th October, 19:45 GMT
Odds:  -118

Serie A

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