Championship Contenders to Win on Their Travels

Bayern need just six points to retain the Bundesliga title.

Bayern need just six points to retain the Bundesliga title.

German Bundesliga championship contenders Bayern Munchen and Dortmund are available at decent odds to win their Saturday away matches at Hertha and Stuttgart respectively.

With four rounds of the German Bundesliga remaining, Bayern Munchen is seven points in front of Dortmund and, therefore, the former requires a maximum of six points to retain the title. Bayern would like to lock away the German Bundesliga trophy as soon as possible and, ideally, in front of its own fans. Back-to-back German Bundesliga wins over Hertha and Monchengladbach would complete the job in such a manner, all in time for the all-important home second leg of its UEFA Champions League semi-final versus Atletico Madrid.

Bayern Munchen is trading at odds of -222  with Marathonbet to defeat Hertha because bookmakers are respectful of the latter based on its fourth position on the ladder. However, Hertha has struggled against most of the German Bundesliga’s other highly ranked teams, having a 1-1-4 record in its six divisional games versus the other sides in the top five. Consequently, one is not surprised that Bayern holds a 14-0-3 German Bundesliga collateral form edge over Hertha, including a 2-0 home victory in November’s reverse fixture. By and large, Bayern has outperformed Hertha against the German Bundesliga’s leading teams and one thinks that Pep Guardiola’s side is over its true odds for three points.

Hertha has been one of the success stories of the German Bundesliga season but a goal difference of only plus four is not one expects of a top-four team and its remaining matches are tough, including trips to Leverkusen and Mainz. Hertha may yet miss out on a UEFA Champions League berth. Hertha has lost each of its last nine games against Bayern Munchen.

Kicking off at the same time as Hertha and Bayern Munchen on Saturday will be Stuttgart and Dortmund, with the latter appealing at odds of -141  with Marathonbet to keep the German Bundesliga frontrunner honest for another round.

According to one’s German Bundesliga collateral form data, Dortmund boasts a 13-2-2 advantage over Stuttgart, including a 4-1 home triumph in November’s reverse fixture. Dortmund has outperformed Stuttgart versus each of the German Bundesliga’s top seven sides and BVB are unlikely to ease off until such time that the championship race is over. Dortmund has won each of its last three matches against Stuttgart, including an impressive 3-1 German DFB-Pokal victory on the road little more than two months ago.

No team has featured in more low-scoring German Bundesliga games than Ingolstadt but one thinks that there are reasons to bet on over two and a half goals in the Schanzer’s home match versus bottom-of-the-ladder Hannover on Saturday.

Twenty-three of Ingolstadt’s German Bundesliga games have gone under two and a half goals, including 10 of its 15 home matches. But Ingolstadt can afford to throw off the shackles because it is almost mathematically safe from relegation at the end of its maiden German Bundesliga campaign and it is hosting a Hannover side that is desperate – anything less than four consecutive wins is unlikely to save the Reds.

Ingolstadt’s German Bundesliga numbers mean that bookmakers are quoting big odds about over two and a half goals – the top offer is +102  with Marathonbet – and one believes that the circumstances make that an interesting wager. Hannover has kept just one German Bundesliga away clean sheet, while the Reds did manage to win November’s reverse fixture 4-0.

Finally, here are one’s German Bundesliga collateral form analysis results for every one of Round 31’s nine games. The asterisk signifies the head-to-head winner.

Hamburg 6*-4-7 versus Bremen
Koln 8*-5-4 versus Darmstadt
Hertha 3-0-14* versus Bayern Munchen
Ingolstadt 10*-5-2 versus Hannover
Stuttgart 2-2-13* versus Dortmund
Wolfsburg 9*-2-6 versus Augsburg
Schalke 5*-2-10 versus Leverkusen
Monchengladbach 9*-1-7 versus Hoffenheim
Frankfurt 5-1-11* versus Mainz

Tips Summary

Bayern Munich to beat Hertha Berlin
Saturday 23rd April, 14:30 GMT
Odds:  -222

Borussia Dortmund to beat Stuttgart
Saturday 23rd April, 14:30 GMT
Odds:  -141

Ingolstadt v Hannover – Over 2.5 Goals
Saturday 23rd April, 14:30 GMT
Odds:  +102