One has to go back more than 19 months since what one would rate as a second-class Italian Serie A team inflicted a home defeat on Sassuolo – step forward Sampdoria – so one is keen to back Eusebio Di Francesco’s side to beat Carpi on Sunday.
Reviewing the coupon for the 12th round of Italian Serie A matches and odds of -125 with Boylesports about fifth-placed Sassuolo deriving three points from its home game versus bottom-of-the-ladder Carpi leap off the page. Since Sampdoria beat Sassuolo 2-1 in March 2014, the Black and Greens have 28 Italian Serie A home matches for 11 wins, 11 draws and six losses, with their six defeats over that period coming against Fiorentina, Juventus, Lazio, Napoli and Roma (twice) – the cream of the crop.
There is nothing in either Sassuolo’s form lines or its team news to suggest that snatching odds of -125 about it beating Carpi would be a gross error of judgement. Sassuolo deserves its lofty position on the Italian Serie A ladder and its two losses have been away to Empoli (conceded the only goal of that game in the 88th minute) and on the road at Milan (it played more than an hour with 10 men and let in that match’s crucial goal in the 86th minute after fighting back from 0-1 down) when it experienced its fair share of misfortune.
Carpi is a mammoth 13 points and 15 rungs below Sassuolo on the Italian Serie A ladder and it is coming off a 0-0 home draw with the other struggling side stuck on half a dozen points, Verona. Before that, Carpi had lost back-to-back Italian Serie A games to the other teams that accompanied it into the top flight, Bologna and Frosinone. There is nothing in Carpi’s form to indicate that it is about to turn the corner away to one of Italian Serie A’s form sides.
Verona is in big trouble in the Italian Serie A relegation zone and the signs are that Luca Toni, who was the league’s leading marksman last season, is unlikely to return until next year. Fellow Italian Serie A struggler Bologna will visit Verona on Saturday and the match has all the makings of an Italian Serie A stinker so one is picking under two and a half goals at Marathonbet’s tasty odds of -143 .
No Italian Serie A teams have scored fewer goals than Verona and Bologna so the case is as open and shut as it gets in all honesty. Eight of Verona’s 11 Italian Serie A games have gone under two and a half goals, while six of Bologna’s 11 matches in the top flight have failed to clear that line. The nerves of both sides, particularly lower ranked Verona at home, will be jangling throughout the 90 minutes and one can see the opening goal – if there is one – being pivotal.
Finally, the most enticing way to bet on the Italian Serie A blockbuster between Roma and Lazio on Sunday is to locate a bookmaker – Bet365 is highly likely to come to the party – and bet on the game going over 10 and a half corner kicks.
Roma and Lazio have been the most prolific takers of corner kicks in Italian Serie A this term, racking up tallies of 79 and 77 respectively – because Sunday’s derby will take place at the ground that they share one is not going to get bogged down into splitting their data into home and away matches.
Six of Roma’s 11 Italian Serie A games have gone over 10 and a half corner kicks, while there have been more than 10 and a half corners in half a dozen of Lazio’s league matches. Punters should be able to get set at decent odds once the bookmaking fraternity goes up with corner-kick lines and, who knows, one or more agency may go nine and a half.
Sassuolo to beat Carpi
8th November 14:00 GMT
Verona v Bologna – Under 2.5 goals
7th November 17:00 GMT
Roma v Lazio – Over 10.5 corners
8th November 14:00 GMT
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