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Capital Crews Lacking Killer Punch in Big Games

February 28, 2019


Lazio v Roma – 2nd March – 19:30 BST

Neither Lazio nor Roma has defeated one of Italian Serie A’s top six sides this season so one thinks the value bet in Saturday’s capital derby is the draw at outsider odds.

One of two marquee matches in the 26th round of the Italian Serie A championship – the other is Sunday’s clash between Napoli and Juventus – Lazio versus Roma features two teams who have consistently struggled against the division’s big guns. Eighth-placed Lazio is 0-2-7 in its nine Italian Serie A games versus higher ranked opponents, while fifth-placed Roma is 0-5-2 against fellow sides in the top half dozen.

September’s reverse Italian Serie A fixture resulted in a 3-1 home win for Roma over a Lazio team that one cannot back this weekend. According to one’s Italian Serie A collateral form analysis, Lazio trails Roma 5-3-11 overall, including progressive counts of 0-0-3, 0-1-6 and 0-2-8. Those numbers indicate Lazio has fared worse than Roma versus most of Italian Serie A’s decent sides and the direct head to head favours the Yellow and Reds over the White and Sky Blues.

There is, however, not much of a case for backing Roma to get the better of Lazio, either. Seventh-placed Torino is Roma’s highest ranked Italian Serie A scalp and the Yellow and Reds have only performed moderately on the road. The draw is the roughie of the three options and it appeals.

More conservative Italian Serie A wagers than betting on Lazio and Roma to draw are backing Torino to beat Chievo and Internazionale to kick off the round by defeating Cagliari.

TOP TIP! – Lazio and Roma to draw @ 3.60  with 188Bet

Get the best odds in the Italian Serie A with our selected bookmakers below.



Torino v Chievo – 2nd March – 19:30 BST

TOP TIP! – Torino to beat Chievo @ 1.44

Torino has won each of its last four Italian Serie A home matches, including a 2-0 victory over in-form Atalanta last weekend. Chievo has won just one of its 25 Italian Serie A games and that success came at the expense of the next lowest ranked team, Frosinone. According to one’s Italian Serie A collateral form analysis, Torino holds a 15-2-2 advantage over Chievo, including a progressive count of 11-0-1. It took until the 88th minute for Torino to hit the front against Chievo in September but the Maroons did post an away victory over the Flying Donkeys and one expects them to register a routine home triumph on Sunday at 1.44  with Black Type . Chievo has a lot more selection headaches than Torino, including Perparim Hetemaj being suspended for the Flying Donkeys this weekend.


Internazionale v Cagliari – 2nd March – 19:30 BST

TOP TIP! – Internazionale to beat Cagliari @ 1.80

Allessandro Deiola is banned for Cagliari, which will host Internazionale in Italian Serie A action on Friday at 1.80  with Black Type. Cagliari is 14th on the Italian Serie A ladder and it has celebrated only one win over a side ranked in the top 11 and the Red and Blues achieved it before their victim, Atalanta, found its feet. According to one’s Italian Serie A collateral form analysis, Internazionale enjoys a 14-3-2 lead over Cagliari, including progressive counts of 5-0-0 and 13-2-1, plus the reverse fixture in September resulted a 2-0 home victory for the Black and Blues courtesy of one goal in each half.


Cagliari 2-3-14

Empoli 7-3-9

Milan 10-3-6

Lazio 5-3-11

Torino 15-2-2

Genoa 9-4-6

SPAL 2-2-15

Udinese 7-5-7

Atalanta 11-8

Napoli 6-1-12

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  • Cagliari
  • Chievo
  • Internazionale
  • Italian Serie A
  • Lazio
  • Roma
  • Torino

    About the author

    Carl Wright
    Carl Wright

    Sports Writer

    Carl is the original ‘Special One’ and uses his statistical knowledge of football to gain the upper hand over the bookies on a weekly basis. A student of odds and probabilities, Carl brings his vast experience of playing the odds and beating the bookies to a weekly column highlighting the very best football bets.