Camp Nou clash to be low on goals

The Spanish Primera Division reaches its most thrilling end in living memory when Barcelona welcomes Atletico Madrid to the Camp Nou for the game that will decide the title.

The Spanish Primera Division equation is simple: a home victory for Barcelona and Tata Martino’s team will win its 23rd championship, while any other result will result in Diego Simeone’s Atletico Madrid securing its 10th crown.

Punters of a certain vintage will remember the 1989 English Division One title coming down to the final match between Liverpool and Arsenal at Anfield. Arsenal needed to win by two or more goals to snatch the championship from Liverpool and the Gunners, in a finale that inspired Nick Hornby to write Fever Pitch, scored their second goal with the last kick of the game. But Saturday’s Spanish Primera Division match has the potential to be even more exciting than that.

Barcelona and Atletico Madrid have not been strangers this season, meeting five times before Saturday’s all-important Spanish Primera Division clash. And it is the results of those five games that provide one with the idea of the premier bet in Spanish Primera Division blockbuster.

Keep it simple and bet on the Spanish Primera Division match between Barcelona and Atletico Madrid going under two and a half goals at odds of 1.91 with Boylesports. Bookmakers are divided as to which option should be the favourite on the two-and-a-half-goals line but surely it should be under.

All five games between Barcelona and Atletico Madrid this term, contested across the Spanish Primera Division, the Spanish Supercopa and the UEFA Champions League, have gone under two and a half goals, with the two Camp Nou cup battles resulting in a goalless draw and a 1-1 draw.

The Spanish Primera Division title mathematics are such that Atletico Madrid can stick to its usual way of playing. One can expect Atletico to set up to frustrate Barcelona with a view to breaking open Barca’s defence on a lightning-fast break. Barcelona has not beaten Atletico this season and, while one may say that Barca is due, one could also argue that Atleti’s approach is the perfect one for the job.

Often the danger in betting on under two and a half goals is that the team that concedes the opening goal throws off the shackles and leaves itself open to conceding more goals. One does not expect Atletico Madrid to do that if Barcelona gets its nose in front at the Camp Nou unless, that is, Barca is up two goals and time is running out. One expects Atletico to stick to its tactics because, in all honesty, Barcelona is likely to dominate possession and territory irrespective of the score. Barcelona will continue to attack even if it takes the lead because it does not trust its defence.

Barcelona will be a popular Spanish Primera Division pick but betting has to be about value and Barca is too short even allowing for the fact that it will have the support of a vociferous home crowd. One cannot escape the fact that Barcelona has not beaten Atletico Madrid in five attempts and, also, Barca has not posted an impressive victory since beating Real Madrid 4-3 at the Santiago Bernabeu in March.

At the foot of the Spanish Primera Division ladder, five sides – Almeria, Getafe, Granada, Osasuna and Valladolid – are fighting to avoid occupying one of the remaining two relegation spots. The most intriguing Spanish Primera Division match in the cellar is the one between Granada, which is one place and two points above the drop zone, and Valladolid, which must win to have a chance of surviving.

Valladolid has lost only one of its 16 home games across all competitions but it has registered just five wins. Granada has accrued only two points from its last 10 Spanish Primera Division away matches. The fly in the ointment of a win bet on Valladolid is that the reverse Spanish Primera Division fixture resulted in a 4-0 victory for Granada. That was four months ago, though, and Valladolid’s recent results have been a notch or two above those of Granada. Valladolid is available at odds of 2.25 with BetVictor to beat Granada.