Cagliari and Lazio to continue high-scoring trend


There is one bet that leaps off the Italian Serie A coupon and it is over two and a half goals in Saturday’s match between Cagliari and Lazio at odds of -125  with PaddyPower.

Zdenek Zeman is back at Cagliari after its Gianfranco Zola experiment did not pay dividends and seasoned Italian Serie A watchers will know that Zeman equals lots of goals. Zeman has sat on Cagliari’s bench for each of its last two Italian Serie A games, the first of which was a 1-1 home draw versus Empoli and the second of which was a 1-3 away loss to Milan.

There is so much that appeals about betting on over two and a half goals in the Italian Serie A match between Cagliari and Lazio that one could cite 1,000 words of statistics but here are some of the best ones. Eighteen of Cagliari’s 28 Italian Serie A games have gone over two and a half goals, including 10 of its 14 home matches. Eighteen of Lazio’s 28 Italian Serie A games have gone over two and a half goals, including eight of its 14 away matches. Cagliari’s 28 Italian Serie A matches have had an average of 3.11 goals, while Lazio’s 28 top-flight games have had a mean of 2.79 goals. And the reverse Italian Serie A fixture between Lazio and Cagliari resulted in a 4-2 home win in which the teams went over two and a half goals inside the first 26 minutes.

Cagliari is five points away from safety near the foot of the Italian Serie A ladder and there is only one way that a Zeman-coached team is going to approach the task of getting out of the relegation zone: attack at all costs. Lazio is third on the Italian Serie A ladder and it has a four-point buffer over Sampdoria as the race for one of the division’s UEFA Champions League spots hots up. Such is the form of Cagliari – two points from its last eight Italian Serie A matches – that Lazio must view Saturday’s game as a great opportunity to consolidate its position in the top three.

One does not want to back either Roma or Napoli to win their Italian Serie A match on Saturday so the draw, which is on offer at odds of +240  with Coral, stands out.

Roma has crashed out of the UEFA Europa League and seen its Italian Serie A championship challenge crumble over the last few weeks and it is desperately short odds for a side that has won just two of its last 11 divisional games. Napoli, which is fifth on the Italian Serie A ladder, six points adrift of second-placed Roma, remains in the UEFA Europa League but it has gone four divisional matches without a victory and its recent program has not been difficult.

One thinks that Napoli may not be sufficiently good to beat Roma in Italy’s capital city and that, given the state of the Italian Serie A ladder, a draw would not be the end of the world for the Wolves. If the scores are level in the second half then one can see Roma playing conservatively.

Finally, PaddyPower is inviting business by offering odds of +130  that Juventus defeats Empoli to nil in the final game of the Italian Serie A round. Juventus has won 12 and drawn two of its 14 Italian Serie A home matches, whereas Empoli’s away record of one win, nine draws and three losses is one of the worst in the division in terms of points.

Tips Summary

Cagliari v Lazio Over 2.5 goals
4th April 14:00 GMT
Odds:  -125
Where to Bet: PaddyPower

Roma v Napoli to draw
4th April 11:30 GMT
Odds:  +240
Where to Bet: Coral

Juventus to beat Empoli
4th April 20:00 GMT
Odds:  +130
Where to Bet: PaddyPower

Gianfranco Zola
Italian Serie A
Zdenek Zeman

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