Bremen to win North Derby and send Hamburg south

werder

One is going to put aside one’s usual rule about avoiding betting on derbies to nominate Bremen as the best bet in this weekend’s German Bundesliga matches at odds of +100  with several bookmakers, including 888SportTotesport and WilliamHill, to beat northern neighbour Hamburg on Sunday.

The North Derby is the highlight of the 29th round of the German Bundesliga and, if it was not for geography, Bremen would be odds on to defeat Hamburg and that is even allowing for the fact that Werder stumbled to a 2-3 loss at then bottom-of-the-ladder Stuttgart on its latest outing. Bremen was set for a German Bundesliga away point until Stuttgart, admittedly down to 10 men, scored its stoppage-time winner.

Hamburg has replaced Stuttgart at the foot of the German Bundesliga ladder and deservedly so given its horrific run over the last two months. Hamburg posted back-to-back wins over Paderborn and Hannover to boost its German Bundesliga survival prospects but that happened in early February – since then HSV have taken two points out of a possible 24 and failed to score in each of their last five matches.

Bremen has copped a couple of beltings over the last couple of months as well but at least they were against the cream of the German Bundesliga crop – Bayern Munchen and Wolfsburg – and the rest of Werder’s form reads just as one would expect of a side ranked ninth in an 18-team competition.

Usually one places a great deal of faith in the results of reverse fixtures but one is putting a pen through Bremen’s 0-2 German Bundesliga loss at Hamburg in November because Werder was a serious relegation candidate in the first half of the season, whereas now it is a much better side which does not have to look over its shoulder – unlike HSV.

Staying with the theme of sometimes ignoring the results of reverse fixtures brings one to Monchengladbach, which one fancies to beat Frankfurt away from home on Friday.

Frankfurt inflicted Monchengladbach’s only German Bundesliga home defeat when it came from behind to win 3-1 in November. Monchengladbach may have 10 wins and three draws from its 14 German Bundesliga home games but one just has to read the comments that some of its players and coaches have made to understand that playing at home poses major difficulties for the Foals. To cut a long story short, Monchengladbach finds it hard to break down packed defences and, therefore, it is more comfortable playing on the road where the emphasis is on its opponent to set the tempo in front of its own fans.

In anticipation of Frankfurt attacking Monchengladbach from the opening whistle of Friday’s German Bundesliga match and that suiting the Foals – they kept Bayern Munchen at bay and hit the champion-elect on the break to devastating effect – one is picking the away team for three points at odds of +110  with Coral. For the record, no German Bundesliga side has conceded more goals than the 57 that Frankfurt has leaked – Eintracht have kept only four clean sheets.

Finally, the German Bundesliga banker bet is Leverkusen at odds of -270 with Bwin to sink Hannover on Saturday.

Leverkusen has won each of its last six German Bundesliga games to almost guarantee itself of a UEFA Champions League ticket because it is 10 points clear of fifth-placed Schalke with six rounds remaining. Hannover has six rounds to keep its German Bundesliga membership and, at the moment, the 96ers are looking reliant on Hamburg, Paderborn and Stuttgart continuing to blow chances to overtake them.

Since the German Bundesliga resumed following its winter break there have been 11 rounds in which Hannover has failed to register a single victory, collecting a measly six points from six draws. Hannover lost 1-3 at home to Leverkusen in the reverse German Bundesliga fixture and that was long before the 96ers started to plummet down the ladder.

Tips Summary

Bremen to beat Hamburg
19th April 14:30 GMT
Odds:  +100
Where to Bet: 888SportTotesportWilliamHill

Monchengladbach to beat Frankfurt
17th April 19:30 GMT
Odds:  +110
Where to Bet: Coral

Leverkusen to beat Hannover
18th April 14:30 GMT
Odds:  -270
Where to Bet: Bwin

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