Boring Burnley, awesome Arsenal and wicked West Ham


Under two and a half goals in the match between Burnley and Newcastle, a bet that Bwin is offering at odds of -120 , is the top wager on the midweek English Premier League coupon.

One’s nomination of under two and a half goals in Saturday’s English Premier League game between Burnley and Aston Villa paid dividends and there is little reason to think that the next Turf Moor tussle will be any more exciting. Burnley’s nine goals in the first 13 English Premier League rounds is the competition’s second-worst haul and Newcastle has leaked just two goals in its last six top-flight matches as the Magpies experience a renaissance under Alan Pardew.

Six of Burnley’s 13 English Premier League games have gone under two and a half goals, including four out of seven at Turf Moor. Burnley’s 13 English Premier League matches have had an average of 2.31 goals – the same mean as Newcastle’s 13 top-flight games. Eight of Newcastle’s 13 English Premier League matches have gone under two and a half goals, including four out of seven away from St James’ Park.

Every English Premier League game at Turf Moor is in danger of being a war as Burnley fights for points in its desperate bid to avoid relegation back to the English Championship. It was always going to be like that when one rates Burnley’s squad in comparison to those of its English Premier League rivals. Also, Newcastle is the lowest scoring team above halfway on the English Premier League ladder so it requires a quantum leap to tip the Magpies to go goal crazy. All in all, the Turf Moor match screams under two and a half goals.

One did not have the guts to oppose Southampton at home to Manchester City on Sunday but one is going to pick Arsenal to beat the Saints at the Emirates Stadium on Wednesday.

Southampton is third on the English Premier League ladder after 13 rounds and the Saints will need to lift their game if they are going to remain in one of the UEFA Champions League qualifying positions. As well as Southampton has recruited and played under new boss Ronald Koeman – very well on both counts – the fact is that the Saints have had one of the softest early schedules. One thinks that it is no coincidence that Southampton’s three English Premier League matches against sides that finished in the top seven last season have resulted in three defeats – 1-2 at Liverpool, 0-1 at Tottenham and 0-3 at home to Manchester City.

Arsenal has lost only one of its last 24 English Premier League home games and that was its unlucky 1-2 loss to Manchester United two rounds ago when, after dominating, Arsene Wenger’s team paid for wasting so many chances.

BetVictor is offering odds of -115  about Arsenal beating Southampton and avenging its 1-2 loss in the English Capital One Cup three months ago. That form line is not worth much since Arsenal did not field anything close to its best side, treating the match far less seriously than Southampton did.

Finally, odds of +212  with BetVictor about West Bromwich losing its next English Premier League game have to appeal on value grounds. West Ham is West Bromwich’s next English Premier League opponent and, even though the match will take place at The Hawthorns, one has to be with the away team.

West Ham manager Sam Allardyce was born in West Bromwich territory – Dudley is full of Baggies fans – and one thinks that he may have a happy homecoming. West Ham has scored in each of its six English Premier League games and, provided that the Hammers keep tabs on West Bromwich striker Saido Berahino, they should have a good chance of registering their first clean sheet on the road in the top flight.

Two of West Bromwich’s three English Premier League victims have been 19th-placed Burnley and bottom-of-the-ladder Leicester so one should be looking to oppose the Baggies whenever their opponents are quoted at such large odds.

Tips Summary

Burnley v Newcastle Under 2.5 goals
2nd December 19:45 GMT
Odds:  -120
Where to Bet: Bwin

Arsenal to beat Southampton
3rd December 19:45 GMT
Odds:  -115
Where to Bet: BetVictor

West Ham to beat West Brom
2nd December 20:00 GMT
Odds:  +212
Where to Bet: BetVictor

Alan Pardew
Premier League Tips
West Bromwich

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