Arsenal would have made one’s English Premier League short list had it not been for its horrific injury toll, leaving Leicester, Watford and Manchester United as one’s picks.
A host of Arsenal players missed their team’s UEFA Champions League Group F 3-0 win over Olympiakos and, while the Gunners hold a huge collateral form advantage over their English Premier League opponent, Aston Villa, one cannot get overly excited about supporting them at odds of around -167 .
The key to successful long-term punting is betting the odds are in your favour and that is most certainly the case for backers of Leicester in its English Premier League match versus Chelsea. While it is true that Leicester’s English Premier League fixture list is about to get a lot nastier, the Foxes deserve to be well above Chelsea on the ladder based on the results of 12 games against common foes. One’s English Premier League collateral form analysis suggests that Leicester enjoys a 8-1-3 lead over Chelsea and, with the Foxes entertaining the Blues on Saturday, the one tie moves to the hosts and they end up with a 9-3 tally.
One is concerned that Chelsea manager Jose Mourinho will come up with a tactical masterplan to stop Leicester but even one’s respect for the under-fire Blues boss does not entitle his team to be such a warm favourite. Frankly, the bookmaking fraternity is joking in chalking up 14th-placed Chelsea at shorter odds than top-of-the-ladder Leicester for one of the round’s marquee English Premier League matches.
Leicester has lost only one of its 15 English Premier League games and it is at home to a Chelsea side that has recorded just four divisional victories and did not enjoy a clear week because of its UEFA Champions League Group G win over Porto. Yet Coral are offering odds of -161 about Leicester not losing to Chelsea, which strikes one as a ridiculous price in the circumstances.
Watford merits favouritism for its English Premier League game against Sunderland on Saturday but one thinks that bookmakers are paying insufficient respect to the Hornets.
Sunderland and Watford have had 14 common English Premier League opponents and one’s collateral form analysis favours the Hornets over the Black Cats 10-1-3. Numbers like those imply that Watford should be odds on to defeat Sunderland at the Stadium of Light and, while one acknowledges that the Black Cats have improved since Sam Allardyce walked through the door, they are 19th on the ladder for a reason. Watford is over the odds at +172 with Marathonbet to win on Wearside and consolidate its position as the promoted team that is most likely to avoid the English Premier League drop.
Finally, one is going to trust one’s collateral form data and pick Manchester United to beat Bournemouth on Saturday.
Manchester United legends Rio Ferdinand, Michael Owen and Paul Scholes smashed their successors and Red Devils coach Louis van Gaal after their former side crashed out of the UEFA Champions League. Scholes, who hid from microphones during his illustrious playing career, has been especially critical of Van Gaal’s Manchester United, which may not be going down too well with his Salford co-owner Ryan Giggs.
No-one is arguing that the current Manchester United team is a great one but Bournemouth and the Red Devils have run into 12 of the same English Premier League opponents and one’s view is that 10 of those collateral form lines favour the side that is attracting so much media criticism currently.
BetVictor are offering odds of +130 about Manchester United winning at Bournemouth, which was the scene of a famous English FA Cup upset 22 seasons ago.
Leicester to win/draw v Chelsea (#SBOGiveaway)
14th December 20:00 GMT
Watford to beat Sunderland
12th December 15:00 GMT
Man Utd to beat Bournemouth
12th December 17:30 GMT
Once or twice per month we will provide you with the latest sports tips and keep you updated about the biggest events.