Bookmakers affording too much respect to famous names


Following the latest round of UEFA European Championship qualifying games there seems to be a number of value bets available due to bookmakers overrating many famous names.

Surely Slovakia should be trading at odds shorter than  -227  with BetVictor to finish either first or second in UEFA European Championship Group C given its position on the six-side ladder and its remaining half a dozen fixtures.

Slovakia is top of the UEFA European Championship Group C ladder with a perfect record of four wins from four games, including a 2-1 home victory over Spain, and it will be the favourite for five of its last six matches in its campaign, with the exception being its return date with the Spanish.

One thinks that Slovakia, which is attempting to make its UEFA European Championship debut, has done most of the hard work already. Slovakia’s UEFA European Championship Group C schedule kicked off in Ukraine and it shocked its host by posting a 1-0 away win. Since then it has beaten Spain at home, Belarus on the road and the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia on the road, with Luxembourg being the other UEFA European Championship Group C competitor. Barring an upset result when Spain faces Ukraine, Slovakia should be safe if it justifies hot favouritism in its UEFA European Championship Group C games against the pool’s lightweights and it does not lose to the Ukrainians on its home pitch.

Northern Ireland has not qualified for a major tournament since the 1986 FIFA World Cup but it has put itself in a great position to reach the UEFA European Championship finals, occupying second spot on the Group F ladder having vanquished Greece and Hungary away from home already.

UEFA European Championship Group F got under way with FIFA World Cup round of 16 loser Greece as the favourite to win the pool but the Greeks have imploded in what one can only describe as spectacularly, their latest match resulting in a 0-1 home loss to the Faroe Islands. Greece has played three of its four UEFA European Championship Group F games at home so it has a mountain to climb but it is yet to entertain Hungary and that is terrific news for Northern Ireland.

One expects Romania to win UEFA European Championship Group F from its commanding position on top of the ladder after four matches, with Northern Ireland in pole position for second place given the remaining program for the pool.

Odds of +180  with 888sport and Unibet about Northern Ireland qualifying for the UEFA European Championship are over the top. Northern Ireland should be ahead of Hungary in the betting and Greece is trading at under its true odds.

Reputation alone is what is making bookmakers quote the Netherlands and Italy at odds on to win UEFA European Championship Group A and Group H respectively, with the Czech Republic and Croatia representing value options.

For the Netherlands to win UEFA European Championship Group A it is going to likely to need some assistance from Iceland and one does not rate the Icelanders anywhere near as highly as some sections of the bookmaking fraternity do. One thinks that the Czech Republic, which has won in Turkey already, is likely to avoid defeat in Iceland next year and thereby make it extremely difficult for anyone to overtake it at the top of the UEFA European Championship Group A ladder.

Bwin is offering remarkably big odds of +180  about the Czech Republic winning UEFA European Championship Group A. No-one in their right mind could back the Netherlands at odds on and the same goes for Italy, which was on the back foot for most of its UEFA European Championship Group F home game versus Croatia last week. One’s only concern about snapping up Bet365‘s odds of +225  about Croatia winning UEFA European Championship Group F is that UEFA may come down on it like a tonne of bricks as a result of crowd disturbances in Italy.

Tips Summary

Euro 2016

Group C (top 2 finish) – Slovakia at -227 with BetVictor
Group F – Northern Ireland to qualify at +180  with 888sport, Unibet
Group A – Czech Republic to win the group at  +180 with Bwin

Czech Republic
Euro 2016 Qualifiers
Northern Ireland

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