Bookies Wrong to Cross Little Zebras in Serie A

Udinese are unbeaten in the last four at home.

Internazionale’s Italian Serie A away form is insufficiently good to warrant the Black and Blues being hot favourites with bookmakers for their match at Udinese on Sunday.

The bookmaking fraternity tends to favour famous teams over less well known sides and Sunday’s Italian Serie A game between Udinese and Internazionale is a classic example. Internazionale has won just three of its nine Italian Serie A away games – all of them at the expense of teams in the ladder’s bottom five – and yet bookmakers are asking punters to back the Black and Blues at around even money to beat a Udinese side that is undefeated in its last four divisional matches. One is not going overboard about Udinese – its four Italian Serie A home wins have come against teams ranked lower than 14th – but the Little Zebras and Internazionale should be evenly matched for a game at the Dacia Arena.

Udinese and Internazionale have had 18 common Italian Serie A foes and, according to one’s collateral form analysis, the Little Zebras trail the Black and Blues 7-2-9. One’s opinion is that Sunday’s Italian Serie A match between Udinese and Internazionale should be a toss-of-a-coin affair in which there is no clear favourite. Bet365, Ladbrokes and Unibet are just some of the bookmakers which are offering odds of -118  about Udinese avoiding defeat and that constitutes a decent wager even if one accepts that Internazionale is an Italian Serie A side on the improve under Stefano Pioli.

Consider this: Genoa is similar odds to win its Italian Serie A home game versus Roma as Udinese is to take down Internazionale but, according to one’s collateral form analysis, the Red and Blues have a 5-0-13 disadvantage compared to the Yellow and Reds. Udinese is overpriced, whereas Genoa’s odds are a true reflection of its chance.

Sassuolo and Torino has the potential to be a high-scoring Italian Serie A match so one is interested in Marathonbet‘s odds of -118  about over two and a half goals in Sunday’s game between the teams ranked 16th and eighth respectively.

Twelve of Sassuolo’s 18 Italian Serie A matches have gone over two and a half goals, including five of its eight home games. Thirteen of Torino’s 18 Italian Serie A matches have gone over two and a half goals, including six of its nine away games. Both Sassuolo and Torino are ranked in Italian Serie A’s top four for goals per match, with the former being the highest-scoring side on the bottom half of the ladder and only Napoli and Roma having netted more goals than the latter, which has been a surprise this season.

Finally, Fiorentina ought to pocket three Italian Serie A points from its trip to Pescara on Sunday. According to one’s Italian Serie A collateral form analysis, Fiorentina holds a 10-7-1 edge over Pescara if one accepts that the Dolphins really lost 1-2 at Sassuolo rather than won 3-0, which was the result that it received following a protest. For the record, Genoa is the Italian Serie A team against which Pescara has really performed better than Fiorentina.

Pescara coach Massimo Oddo will have to reshuffle his deck because regular starters Cristiano Biraghi and Valerio Verre are suspended, whereas Fiorentina boss Paulo Sousa will have the luxury of choosing from a full squad of players.

Fiorentina is available at odds of -110  with William Hill to beat Pescara and push the Dolphins closer to the Italian Serie A relegation trapdoor at the term’s halfway point.

Tips Summary

Udinese or Draw
Sunday 8th January, 11:30 GMT
Odds:  -118

Sassuolo v Torino – Over 2.5 Goals
Sunday 8th January, 14:00 GMT
Odds:  -118

Fiorentina to beat Pescara
Sunday 8th January, 14:00 GMT
Odds:  -110

Inter Milan
Serie A

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