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Bookies Are Silly Billies in Underrating Koln

October 13, 2016

FC Koln earned a 1-1 draw with Bayern in their last Bundesliga match.

Six rounds into the German Bundesliga season and Koln is unbeaten whereas Ingolstadt is yet to post a victory but bookmakers are refusing to credit the Billy Goats.

A 1-1 away draw versus Bayern Munchen in its last German Bundesliga match should have convinced many of Koln’s doubters that the Billy Goats are the real deal. A UEFA Champions League berth may end up out of Koln’s reach ultimately but the Billy Goats are unlikely to find themselves fighting against relegation from the German Bundesliga, which is likely to be Ingolstadt’s fate.

Ingolstadt has endured a relatively difficult start to its German Bundesliga campaign but it is hard to get away from the fact that the Schanzer have lost to every team that they have placed except Hamburg and the Red Shorts are the only other side without a divisional success to their name.

One loves collateral form but, unfortunately, Koln and Ingolstadt have had just one common German Bundesliga opponent in the opening half a dozen rounds. However, that German Bundesliga collateral form line favours Koln because the Billy Goats drew 1-1 at Bayern Munchen two weeks after Ingolstadt lost 1-3 at the German Bundesliga champion.

Koln is available at odds of 4/5  with Bet365BetVictor and Coral to extend its undefeated start across all competitions with a home win over Ingolstadt on Saturday. One thinks that the Koln odds are more than reasonable when one rates the Billy Goats as a top-half-of-the-ladder team and Ingolstadt as a relegation candidate. Losing at home to Hertha, Frankfurt and Hoffenheim is relegation form in one’s book.

The German Bundesliga is known for its high-scoring games in which there are fewer clean sheets than in a youth hostel. One’s other German Bundesliga picks are on the both sides to score market, with the matches in question being the tussles between Hoffenheim and Freiburg and Bremen and Leverkusen.

Both teams have scored in five of Hoffenheim’s six German Bundesliga games, while Freiburg has conceded eight goals in its three divisional road matches. There was no clean sheets in either of last term’s German Bundesliga games between Hoffenheim and Freiburg. Indeed, both sides have hit the back of the net in eight of the last nine German Bundesliga clashes featuring Hoffenheim and Freiburg with the exception to the rule being a 0-0 draw in the Black Forest in 2012.

Hoffenheim ranks second and Freiburg ranks sixth for German Bundesliga shots this season and the sides are ranked third and eighth for shots conceded so there should be plenty of action at both ends of the pitch in their Saturday showdown.

Both teams have scored in each of Bremen’s five German Bundesliga matches since it lost 0-6 at Bayern Munchen in round one. There has not been a single clean sheet in any of Leverkusen’s last five German Bundesliga away games spanning this term and the last one. And each of the last two matches between Bremen and Leverkusen – one in the German Bundesliga and one in the German DFB Pokal – have resulted in both attacked-minded sides rustling the old onion bag.

One can get odds of 1.54  about both teams scoring in Hoffenheim versus Freiburg, while Bet365 are laying odds of 1.62  about the same eventuality occurred in the German Bundesliga game between Bremen and Leverkusen.

Tips Summary

FC Koln to beat Ingoldstadt
Saturday 15th October, 14:30 GMT
Odds: 4/5

Hoffenheim v Freiburg – Over 2.5 Goals
Saturday 15th October, 14:30 GMT
Odds: 1.54

Werder Bremen v Bayer Leverkusen – Over 2.5 Goals
Saturday 15th October, 17:30 GMT
Odds: 1.62

  • bayer leverkusen
  • Bundesliga
  • FC Koln
  • Freiburg
  • Hoffenheim
  • Werder Bremen

    About the author

    Eric Roberts
    Eric Roberts

    Sports Journalist

    Eric has been a sports journalist for over 20 years and has travelled the world covering top sporting events for a number of publications. He also has a passion for betting and uses his in-depth knowledge of the sports world to pinpoint outstanding odds and value betting opportunities.