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Bookies gone too far with Signal Iduna Park goals

May 1, 2014

hoffThe German Bundesliga match between Dortmund and Hoffenheim has the potential to be high scoring but one thinks that the bookmaking fraternity has got carried away with its odds and the value lies in betting on under four and a half goals.

Yes, one read correctly. It is possible to bet on under four and a half goals at reasonable odds in a German Bundesliga game because BetVictor is offering 1.57 about Dortmund and Hoffenheim not exceeding that mark in the penultimate round of matches. One thinks that bookmakers have overreacted to the goals-per-game statistics of the competing teams.

Dortmund has been terrific to watch in the German Bundesliga even though it did not keep Bayern Munchen honest at the top of the ladder. Dortmund’s 32 German Bundesliga matches have had an average of 3.41 goals, with 25 of them going over two and a half goals. But Hoffenheim can trump that numbers and then some. Hoffenheim’s 32 German Bundesliga games have featured a mean of 4.16 goals, with 26 of them exceeding two and a half goals. So one does not have any issues with bookmakers quoting over two and a half goals at short odds.

However, one does not understand why bookmakers are scared witless of laying bets on over four and a half goals in the German Bundesliga match between Dortmund and Hoffenheim. Six of Dortmund’s 32 German Bundesliga games have gone over four and a half goals, while a dozen of Hoffenheim’s 32 German Bundesliga matches have exceeded four and a half goals. Split the difference and one is looking at nine out of 32, which equates to a percentage of 28.13 and odds of 3.55.

Bookmakers should be offering odds of around 3.50 about the German Bundesliga game between Dortmund and Hoffenheim going over four and a half goals. One will be lucky to obtain odds of 2.50, which means that the under option is overpriced. It does not hurt, either, that the reverse German Bundesliga fixture in December resulted in a 2-2 draw. High scoring, yes, but insufficient to bust the recommended goals line.

All of this weekend’s German Bundesliga matches will kick off at the same time but that does not help one to identify bets. The German Bundesliga fixture list has served up many games in which, because of the prevailing circumstances, sides with all the motivation in the world are up against superior teams that may not be 100 per cent fired up. And, unfortunately, all the motivated sides are under their true odds and all the unmotivated teams are relatively short.

For example, German Bundesliga cellar dweller Braunschweig is challenging eighth-placed Augsburg for favouritism and second-bottom Nurnberg is a pronounced favourite against Hannover even though the desperate relegation battler has lost five matches in a row and nine out of its last 10. At least Nurnberg can point to the 16th German Bundesliga round and say that it drew 3-3 away to Hannover. Braunschweig has to turn the tables on Augsburg having lost 1-4 on the road.

The other German Bundesliga side that is in real relegation trouble is Hamburg, which will host Bayern Munchen. Heaven knows what Bayern Munchen team will turn up following its UEFA Champions League semi-final second leg versus Real Madrid but it would have to be a pretty poor one to back Hamburg. It is a German Bundesliga round to leave alone, apart from taking the under-four-and-a-half-goals value.

About the author

Eric Roberts
Eric Roberts

Sports Journalist

Eric has been a sports journalist for over 20 years and has travelled the world covering top sporting events for a number of publications. He also has a passion for betting and uses his in-depth knowledge of the sports world to pinpoint outstanding odds and value betting opportunities.