Black and Greens to Muzzle Mastiffs

Sassuolo are 7th in Serie A.

Verona’s three-season stay in Italian Serie A is guaranteed to end next month and one thinks that the Mastiffs will lose their 19th league match when they visit Sassuolo on Sunday.

Carpi’s 1-0 Italian Serie A victory over Empoli on Monday relegated Verona from the top flight that it rejoined in 2013 and now the deflated Mastiffs must tackle a Sassuolo side that has UEFA Europa League qualification in its sights. Sassuolo will qualify for the UEFA Europa League if it finishes sixth on the Italian Serie A ladder and Milan loses to Juventus in the Italian Coppa Italia final.

According to one’s Italian Serie A collateral form analysis, Sassuolo enjoys a 12-3-4 advantage over Verona, figures that support the respective ladder positions of the teams – the Black and Greens are seventh having racked up more than double the points of 20th-placed Verona. Sassuolo drew 1-1 at Verona in the 17th round of Italian Serie A and that was in spite of the Black and Greens lining up without their best player, Domenico Berardi. Sassuolo defender Federico Peluso is suspended for Verona’s visit but Berardi is good to go and, consequently, the Black and Greens are worth backing at odds of -161  with Coral to muzzle the Mastiffs.

Sassuolo is 6-8-3 at home in Italian Serie A and it has beaten Juventus and Napoli on its own pitch. Verona’s away record of 1-7-9 is the third worst in the division in terms of points per game and the Mastiffs must be extremely light on for motivation after having its demotion confirmed.

Second place in Italian Serie A means qualifying for the UEFA Champions League group stage automatically so one is willing to bet on Napoli taking its home match against 13th-placed suspension-hit Atalanta on Monday seriously.

Napoli’s poor Italian Serie A head-to-head record versus Roma means that the Partenopei cannot afford any mistakes over the final few rounds if they are going to stay ahead of the Wolves. Napoli owns Italian Serie A’s best home record of 14-3-0 and it will welcome an Atalanta side minus its leading goal scorer, Alejandro Gomez. Papu is out for three Italian Serie A games as a consequence of his red card in Atalanta’s 1-0 home victory over Chievo last weekend and also serving a ban is Italy defender Gabriel Paletta.

According to one’s Italian Serie A collateral form analysis, Napoli holds a 14-3-2 lead over Atalanta and December’s incident-packed reverse fixture – both teams finished with 10 players – resulted in a 3-1 away win for the Partenopei. Perhaps the best way with which to get with Napoli is to back it to lead Atalanta at both breaks, an option that is available at odds of -164  with 888Sport and Unibet. Napoli has landed the half-time/full-time double result in 10 of its 17 Italian Serie A home matches, while Atalanta has accrued just 12 points from its 17 league away games.

On what is a typically difficult end-of-season Italian Serie A card, one’s third pick is Juventus to be in front of Carpi at both half time and full time of their Sunday showdown.

Odds of -105  with 888Sport and Unibet are too good to pass up about the Italian Serie A champion putting on a show versus a Carpi team that is simply not in the same class as Juventus. Yes, Carpi is fighting for its Italian Serie A life but the White and Reds have a couple of players out through suspension – midfielders Raffaele Bianco and Lorenzo Lollo – and they trail Juventus 1-0-18 according to one’s collateral form analysis. Genoa is the only Italian Serie A side that has performed worse against Carpi than Juventus.

Finally, here are one’s Italian Serie A collateral form analysis results for each of this weekend’s 10 matches. The asterisk signifies the head-to-head winner.

Udinese 7*-4-8 versus Torino
Chievo 6-1-12* versus Fiorentina
Juventus 18*-0-1 versus Carpi
Empoli 9*-1-9 versus Bologna
Milan 12*-3-4 versus Frosinone
Palermo 4-3-12* versus Sampdoria
Sassuolo 12*-3-4 versus Verona
Lazio 6*-3-10 versus Internazionale
Genoa 4-3-12* versus Roma
Napoli 14*-3-2 versus Atalanta

Tips Summary

Sassuolo to beat Verona
Sunday 1st May, 14:00 GMT
Odds:  -161

Napoli HT/FT Double Result
Monday 2nd May, 20:00 GMT
Odds:  -164

Juventus HT/FT Double Result
Sunday 1st May, 11:30 GMT
Odds:  -105

Juventus
Napoli
Sassuolo
Serie A

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