Black Cats and Hammers to Combine for Goals

Winston Reid scored a last-gasp winner when West Ham and Sunderland last met.

After playing seven games without scoring a goal the writing is on the wall for Sunderland as they inch closer to relegation with every passing week. Few punters would consider a bet on over 2.5 goals where the Black Cats are concerned, but that is exactly what we’re suggesting when they host a leaky West Ham at the Stadium of Light on Saturday afternoon.

The aim of this statistics column is to highlight bets which are value odds based on our analysis of previous results and scorelines over the course of the season. Other games which catch the eye include Everton versus Burnley and Crystal Palace versus Leicester.

The Toffees enjoyed a 4-2 win over the Foxes last Sunday, and are secure in 7th place in the Premier League table. That should be enough for a place in next season’s Europa League, but Ronald Koeman will have his eye on snatching 5th or 6th place from Manchester United and Arsenal – the two sides both within three points of the Merseyside club. Having won the last six at Goodison Park, Everton will relish the visit of a Burnley side which has the worst away record in the entire division.

Meanwhile Leicester pay a visit to Crystal Palace after a mentally and physically draining match away at Atletico Madrid in the Champions League. the Eagles are backing up from that 3-0 win against Arsenal last Monday night, and will go into the game full of confidence as Sam Allardyce once again proves his survival credentials.

Sunderland v West Ham

So why should you back over 2.5 goals at -111  with Paddy Power?

Of Sunderland’s 16 home games this season, 10 have exceeded the over 2.5 goal line which equates to a percentage of 62.5%. Their lack of recent goal-scoring form hasn’t damaged those figures too much with three of the last six at the Stadium of Light reaping three or more goals.

West Ham have played 16 Premier League road games this season, of which 11 have seen three or more strikes. That’s equivalent to 68.75%, and is indicative of their defensive frailty. The Hammers have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last 12 away matches in the top flight, and five of the last six away from home have gone over the 2.5 goal line.

Combining those percentages results in an average 65.6% chance of three or more goals – or equivalent odds of  -192 . Paddy Power’s odds are well over that margin, and therefore represent plenty of value.

To add weight to the selection, West Ham are struggling with injury worries at the back – Reid, Ogbonna and Cresswell on the sidelines means three of their first choice back four will not take the field. Clearly it’s difficult to see where Sunderland goals will come from, but it’s panic stations in the North East and this is a game that they will surely earmark for three points if they have any hope of playing Premier League football next season.

Everton v Burnley

Everton host Burnley on Saturday afternoon and odds of +250  with Betfair and 188Bet about a home win and both teams to score are wide of the mark.

Everton have won four of their sixteen home games while conceding to the opposition – a return of 25% as far as result/both teams to score markets are concerned. Nothing to shout about, but when you consider that they have won 11 of those sixteen the percentage of victories in which they have conceded rises to 37%.

Burnley have been woeful on their travels this season, amassing just four points from four draws on the road, and failing to register a single away victory. One doubts that sequence will improve at Everton. Of their sixteen away games, a defeat in which both teams have scored has occurred in 43.8% of matches. They’ve found the net away at Spurs, Man City, Arsenal and Liverpool so can retain hope of scoring at Goodison.

Combining the percentages of result/both teams to score for home and away matches respectively results in an average of 34.4% – equating to odds of +191  .

Crystal Palace v Leicester

Finally the numbers point to Crystal Palace being overpriced to land a HT/FT result against Leicester at +190  with BetVictor and Coral.

Palace have landed the HT/FT result in 26.7% of their 15 home Premier League games this season, although it’s worth noting that much of the campaign was under Alan Pardew before Sam Allardyce took over. The Eagles have won their last three at Selhurst Park with Big Sam in the dugout, two of which they were leading at the 45 minute mark.

It’s Leicester’s woeful away form that makes this bet stand out. Of their 15 road games they’ve lost nine in which they were behind by half-time. That equates to a huge 60% of games where the HT/FT result would have landed for their opponents. Consider too that the Foxes are returning from that tough tie in Madrid and the return leg is just three days after this London clash.

Combined percentages average out at a 43.3% chance of Palace completing the HT/FT result, equivalent odds of  +131 . Therefore the  +190  on offer with several bookmakers is great value based on the raw data.

Tips Summary

Sunderland v West Ham – Over 2.5 Goals
Saturday 15th April, 15:00 BST
Odds:  -111

Everton to beat Burnley & BTTS
Saturday 15th April, 15:00 BST
Odds:  +250

Crystal Palace HT/FT Double Result
Saturday 15th April, 15:00 BST
Odds:  +190

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