Betis to Leapfrog Valencia on Primera Division Ladder

Real Betis beat Levante 4-0 in their last home match.

Real Betis beat Levante 4-0 in their last home match.

Betis to beat Valencia is the best value play in the eighth round of Spanish Primera Division as the competition resumes following the international break for FIFA World Cup games.

Both Betis and Valencia bring Spanish Primera Division runs to Sunday’s fixture, with the Green and Whites having won three and drawn one of their last four matches and the Bats being 4-3-0 in the league. Betis is below Valencia on the Spanish Primera Division ladder but there are grounds for rating the Green and Whites higher than the Bats. That is because Betis and Valencia have had three common Spanish Primera Division opponents – Real Madrid, Sociedad and Levante – and, according to one’s collateral form analysis, the Green and Whites hold a 2-0-1 edge over the Bats.

Last term’s Spanish Primera Division meetings between Betis and Valencia resulted in four points going to the Green and Whites and one point in the bank of the Bats. Furthermore, Betis is 2-2-0 in its last four Spanish Primera Division games versus Valencia so the recent head-to-head data supports siding with the Green and Whites on Sunday.

The betting market is not affording sufficient respect to Betis, which is trading at odds of +150   with Jetbull and Bet365, more than what one would expect to see about a home team that is equal in ability to an away team. One is arguing that Betis may be superior to Valencia so, if anything, the Green and Whites should be close to the +100   mark so they are a value wager.

There is a lot of Spanish Primera Division collateral form that suggests that Sevilla is better than Athletic so the White and Reds are worth considering at  +200   with 888Sport for Saturday’s match even though it will take place at San Mames in Bilbao.

Sevilla and Athletic have a lot in common because, in the first seven Spanish Primera Division rounds, both the White and Reds and the Lions have faced Atletico Madrid, Getafe, Girona, Las Palmas, Eibar and Malaga. According to one’s Spanish Primera Division collateral form analysis, Sevilla enjoys a 4-2-0 advantage over Athletic so the ladder does not lie when it says that the White and Reds are Spain’s second best side and the Lions are ranked only 13th.

Certainly Sevilla will be hoping that they keep 11 players on the field for the duration of Saturday’s Spanish Primera Division game because the White and Reds have ended their most recent two visits to San Mames with nine men and 10 men. Sevilla and Athletic have clashed just once this year and it resulted in a 1-0 Spanish Primera Division home win for the White and Reds in which both teams behaved itself.

The match of the Spanish Primera Division round is Atletico Madrid against Barcelona on Saturday and there is value in backing the draw at  +180   with Bet365 at the Wanda Metropolitano on Saturday.

Each of last season’s four clashes between Atletico Madrid and Barcelona – two in the Spanish Copa del Rey and two in the Spanish Primera Division – ended either all square or with one goal splitting the sides and, according to one’s Spanish Primera Division collateral form analysis, the Mattressers and Barca are level on 1-0-1. The atmosphere inside the Wanda Metropolitano will be electric given the political situation in Spain currently and it hurts the chance of Barcelona registering an away win at favourite odds that Lionel Messi played for Argentina in Ecuador on Tuesday. Messi is one of the finest footballers of all time but surely he will be tired following his midweek exploits.

Tips Summary

Real Betis to beat Valencia
Sunday 15th October, 19:45 GMT
Odds:  +150

Sevilla to beat Athletic Bilbao
Saturday 14th October, 12:00 GMT
Odds:  +200

Atletico and Barcelona to Draw
Saturday 14th October, 19:45 GMT
Odds:  +180