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Hoffenheim is the German Bundesliga’s only unbeaten side but still bookmakers are refusing to pay sufficient respect to the third-placed team that will host Bremen on Wednesday.
Fifteen rounds into the German Bundesliga season and the Kraichgauer are leading the chasing pack behind Bayern Munchen and Leipzig, their ability to eke out results enabling them to occupy a high ladder position. The raps on Hoffenheim coach Julian Naglesmann are massive and, if one takes into account not only this season but also last term, what the 29-year-old manager has achieved is incredible.
Bottom-half sides Augsburg and Bremen are the two German Bundesliga teams that Hoffenheim is yet to face, plus it has visited Bayern Munchen so the Kraichgauer have had a pretty tough opening 15 divisional games. Admittedly, Hoffenheim is just 1-4-0 versus sides in the German Bundesliga top six but the Kraichguaer ought to be shorter odds to defeat Bremen than those of 13/20 1.65 -154 0.65 -1.54 0.65 that BetVictor is offering about them.
Bremen is 14th on the German Bundesliga ladder, 12 points adrift of Hoffenheim and barely managing to stay out of the relegation zone. For the umpteenth German Bundesliga season in a row, Bremen cannot defend for toffee and it has kept only one clean sheet in its 15 divisional matches. No fewer than 13 of Bremen’s 15 German Bundesliga games have gone over two and a half goals so Werder are fun to watch.
Hoffenheim and Bremen have had 14 common German Bundesliga opponents this term and, according to one’s collateral form analysis, the Kraichgauer enjoys a 10-1-3 advantage over Werder, figures that confirm that the ladder is telling the truth for once. You know how misleading ladders can be.
Frankfurt has the right to be trading at odds on for its German Bundesliga match against Mainz on Tuesday so one fancies Eintracht at odds of 6/5 2.20 +120 1.20 1.20 -0.83 with several boomakers, including Betfair and Marathonbet.
Unbeaten at home in German Bundesliga action, Frankfurt has shone in all of its big divisional games this season, going 3-3-0 versus sides above halfway on the ladder. Mainz, on the other hand, is 0-1-5 against German Bundesliga teams ranked higher than 10th and its single point came in its crazy 4-4 away draw versus Hoffenheim in September.
Frankfurt is two rungs and six points ahead of Mainz on the German Bundesliga ladder and one’s collateral form analysis backs up the most commonly used statistical tool. Frankfurt and Mainz has run into 14 identical German Bundesliga sides and Eintracht holds a 7-3-4 edge over the O-Fives.
Finally, the German Bundesliga match of the round is Bayern Munchen against Leipzig on Wednesday. One thinks that there is value in backing Bayern to win by one goal, an option that is available at odds of 11/4 3.75 +275 2.75 2.75 -0.36 with 188Bet and Bet365.
One does not doubt that Bayern Munchen is superior to Leipzig even though the teams are level on 36 German Bundesliga points. Bayern and Leizpig have had 14 common German Bundesliga foes and, according to one’s collateral form analysis, the former leads the latter by a margin of 10-0-4. But Bayern’s German Bundesliga collateral form edge over Leipzig owes a lot to the brutal manner in which Carlo Ancelotti’s side has dismantled some of the division’s poor teams. Leipzig has quickly established itself as a genuine German Bundesliga contender and, even if Bayern does get the chocolates in Munich, one expects the game to be close.
Hoffenheim to beat Bremen
Wednesday 21st December, 19:00 GMT
Odds: 13/20 1.65 -154 0.65 -1.54 0.65
Frankfurt to beat Mainz
Tuesday 20th December, 19:00 GMT
Odds: 6/5 2.20 +120 1.20 1.20 -0.83
Bayern to beat Leipzig by One Goal
Wednesday 21st December, 19:00 GMT
Odds: 11/4 3.75 +275 2.75 2.75 -0.36
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