One appreciates that punters like to bet on goals but one thinks that the best bets on the Italian Serie A coupon involve punting on a couple of low-scoring matches.
Nine rounds into the Italian Serie A season and the four teams whose games have featured the fewest goals are, in alphabetical order, Atalanta, Fiorentina, Sampdoria and Torino. They are the only four Italian Serie A sides whose league matches have had an average of under 2.00 goals this term and, as luck would have it, Sampdoria hosts Fiorentina and Torino hosts Atalanta in the 10th round of games.
Sampdoria has been the least entertaining Italian Serie A team to watch this season, with its nine matches featuring 14 goals and seven of its games going under two and a half goals. One could argue that Sampdoria is unlucky not to be 9-0 under two and a half goals in Italian Serie A this term because it had a man sent off when leading Cagliari 2-0 in the 58th minute and its match against Chievo was 1-0 going into the 80th minute before a late goal for each side.
Fiorentina’s 3-0 Italian Serie A home win over Udinese on Wednesday was only the second time that it had failed to reward punters who had backed under two and a half goals in its nine league games this season and it was heading under the total midway through the second half when the score was 1-0. All four of Fiorentina’s Italian Serie A away matches have gone under two and a half goals and still it is unable to field its expensively assembled first-choice frontline.
Bwin is offering odds of -139 that the Italian Serie A game between Sampdoria and Fiorentina goes under two and a half goals. Last term’s corresponding Italian Serie A fixture resulted in a 0-0 draw and a repeat would not be a shock.
Also attractive are the odds of -143 available with 888sport and Unibet that the Italian Serie A match between Torino and Atalanta goes under two and a half goals, which is what both of last season’s league meetings of the teams did – indeed, there was not a goal before the 57th minute in either clash.
Torino’s nine Italian Serie A games this term have had an average of 1.78 goals, with six of them going under two and a half goals, including all five of its home matches. Torino is struggling to score goals, although it is prolific in comparison to Atalanta, which is Italian Serie A’s lowest scorer having celebrated just four times in nine rounds.
Seven of Atalanta’s nine Italian Serie A games this season have gone under two and a half goals and its matches have had an average of 1.67 goals. Neither Torino nor Atlanta has featured in an Italian Serie A match this term that has gone over three goals so all the statistics support one’s pick.
Finally, Milan is more than fairly quoted at odds of -189 with Coral to accrue three Italian Serie A points from its home game versus Palermo, which has the division’s worst away record this season and posted home victories over two of the bottom three sides, Cesena and Chievo, to put itself in what one thinks is a bit of a false ladder position.
Only Italian Serie A title favourite Juventus has defeated Milan this term and none of the six collateral form lines pertaining to the San Siro showdown favours Palermo. If one does not like exotic bets such as punts on under two and a half goals then Milan is the best bet in the 10th round of Italian Serie A matches at surprising big odds of -189 .
Sampdoria v Fiorentina Under 2.5 goals
2nd November 14:00 GMT
Where to Bet: Bwin
Milan to beat Palermo
2nd November 19:45 GMT
Where to Bet: Coral
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