Bayern to kick off round with another win to nil

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The best bet in the 23rd round of German Bundesliga matches is Bayern Munchen to kick off the action with a home win to nil over the division’s third best away performer, Koln.

Only Bayern Munchen and Wolfsburg are averaging more German Bundesliga road points per game than Koln so there will be some punters willing to back the Billy Goats at fancy odds to exit the Allianz Arena on Friday with a positive result of some kind. However, one thinks that the smartest way to bet on the German Bundesliga match is to back Bayern Munchen to dominate Koln and post its fourth consecutive league win without conceding a goal and its 14th of the competition.

Bayern Munchen beat Koln 2-0 in the sixth round of German Bundesliga games, enjoying nearly 80 per cent possession, leading the corner-kick count 11-2 and netting its goals either side of the half-time interval. Bayern Munchen has had a full week to prepare for its latest German Bundesliga assignment which is against a Koln team that has scored just one goal in its last four league matches despite playing three badly out-of-form sides – Hannover, Paderborn and Stuttgart – in that period, all of them on home soil.

Boylesports and PaddyPower are offering odds of -161  that Bayern Munchen, which has conceded only three goals in its 11 German Bundesliga home games, shuts out low-scoring Koln – just Hamburg has scored fewer league goals – and wins. It may be an unoriginal selection but it is a decent one.

Hands up who wants to back Dortmund at short odds to win its German Bundesliga derby against Schalke on Saturday? One’s hands are not up in the air and anyone who thinks that Dortmund represents value should quit betting on football.

One is willing to break one’s rule of not betting on derbies because Schalke, which defeated Dortmund 2-1 in the reverse German Bundesliga fixture, should not be trading at odds of +200  with Bet365 to avoid defeat in the latest clash between Germany’s best supported teams. Dortmund will be backing up from playing Juventus in Italy on Tuesday and BVB’s mental state is still fragile in spite of its recent league wins.

What would be fair odds about Dortmund beating Schalke in the match of the German Bundesliga round? One would say that Dortmund should be trading at odds of around the +100  mark. which would make Schalke odds on to either win or draw.

Monchengladbach has to play just three days after lining up against Sevilla in Spain but, even so, the Foals should be too good for Paderborn on Sunday, which has fired blanks in four of its five German Bundesliga games since Christmas.

Two goals in the first 14 minutes set Monchengladbach on its way to three German Bundesliga points at Paderborn five months ago and the Foals, provided that their UEFA Europa League second leg versus Sevilla does not go to extra time and/or penalties, will be confident of securing their sixth home win in a row across all competitions. Monchengladbach is available at odds of -167  with Bwin and WilliamHill to complete a German Bundesliga double over a Paderborn side that is hurtling towards the second tier.

With regards to German Bundesliga exotics, it is easy to see Sunday’s match between Bremen and Wolfsburg being full of goals. Both Bremen and Wolfsburg are 15-7 for over two and a half goals in the German Bundesliga, with the former’s 22 games averaging 3.64 goals and the latter’s 22 games averaging 3.27 goals. Over two and a half goals is trading at odds of -172  with 888Sport and Unibet and, while it was a close call between that and both teams to score at a similar price, one is nominating the overs wager.

Tips Summary

Bayern to beat Koln to nil
27th February 19:30 GMT
Odds:  -161
Where to Bet: BoylesportsPaddyPower

Schalke to win/draw v Dortmund
28th February 14:30 GMT
Odds:  +200
Where to Bet: Bet365

Monchengladbach to beat Paderborn
1st March 14:30 GMT
Odds:  -167
Where to Bet: BwinWilliamHill

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