It has taken 19 rounds for bookmakers to absolutely nail a German Bundesliga round but one cannot find anything really out of the line in the latest batch of championship matches.
German Bundesliga frontrunners Bayern Munchen and Dortmund should post comfortable home victories over Hoffenheim and Ingolstadt and, boring as these bets may be, backing Bayern and BVB to lead at half time and full time of their latest league games looks like the best way to eke out a profit.
Bayern Munchen is top of the German Bundesliga ladder, 35 points ahead of a Hoffenheim team that would be bottom if Hannover had a slightly better goal difference. Hoffenheim is the German Bundesliga’s eighth best first-half side with a 5-9-4 record but the Huub Stevens-coached struggler has toiled on its travels as its 0-6-3 first-half road numbers back up. Bayern has won each of its nine German Bundesliga home matches – scoring 32 goals and conceding three – and Pep Guardiola’s team does not stand on ceremony at home to the division’s weaklings. It is not worth backing Bayern Munchen to win most of its German Bundesliga home games but 888Sport and Unibet are offering acceptable odds of -222 about Bayern leading Hoffenheim at both breaks in Sunday’s match that will complete the 19th round. Bayern came from behind to win 2-1 at Hoffenheim in the reverse German Bundesliga fixture and that was despite having Jerome Boateng sent off in the 72nd minute with the scores level.
Dortmund is the German Bundesliga’s premier first-half side with its 12-2-4 numbers being two points superior to those of Bayern Munchen. Dortmund thrashed Ingolstadt 4-0 in the first-ever German Bundesliga encounter between the sides in August and one thinks that once again, 888sport and Unibet are offering fair odds of -169 about Saturday’s second clash being one that BVB lead at both breaks. It took Dortmund 55 minutes to crack Ingolstadt earlier this season but BVB are holding to hold out at their intimidating stadium and one cannot see the Schanzer posing much of an attacking threat – they have scored a German Bundesliga-low 12 goals in their 18 games, including only five goals away from home.
To complete one’s German Bundesliga punting portfolio one is going to pick 11th-placed Hamburg not to lose its road match against 15th-placed Stuttgart on Saturday because it is the game on which bookmakers are closest to making a mistake.
One’s German Bundesliga collateral form analysis supports the ladder that sees Hamburg four rungs and four points in front of Stuttgart. One was expecting Hamburg to trade at odds of around +200 to win at Stuttgart so one toyed with the idea of nominating the Red Shorts at +285 with Marathonbet to complete a German Bundesliga double over the Reds before chickening out because, frankly, both teams are unreliable. Bet365 are offering odds of -120 about Hamburg avoiding defeat versus Stuttgart and that price makes more appeal than the odds-against one about a Red Shorts win.
Finally, here are one’s German Bundesliga collateral form analysis results for every one of Round 19’s nine matches. The asterisk signifies the direct head-to-head winner.
Mainz 8*-1-8 versus Monchengladbach
Dortmund 12*-2-3 versus Ingolstadt
Leverkusen 10*-1-6 versus Hannover
Augsburg 6*-5-6 versus Frankfurt
Bremen 5*-3-9 versus Hertha
Darmstadt 6*-2-9 versus Schalke
Stuttgart 6-2-9* versus Hamburg
Wolfsburg 9*-1-7 versus Koln
Bayern 15*-0-2 versus Hoffenheim
Bayern HT/FT v Hoffenheim
31st January 16:30 GMT
Dortmund HT/FT v Ingolstadt
30th January 14:30 GMT
Hamburg Win/Draw v Stuttgart
30th January 17:30 GMT
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