You Would be Batty to Back Valencia in Spanish La Liga

Real Sociedad beat Atletico 2-0 at home earlier this season.

Valencia is the Spanish Primera Division’s most overrated team and, until such time that bookmakers switch on to the fact that the Bats are distinctly average, they are worth opposing, continuing with their Saturday game at Sociedad.

Cesare Prandelli faces a huge task to turn around Valencia’s fortunes. Valencia is 17th on the Spanish Primera Division ladder and it has failed to collect a single point from its seven divisional matches against sides ranked in the top 10.

And Valencia’s injury problems are mounting up with, among others, Ezequiel Garay and Nani on the sidelines. Valencia was ridiculously quoted at odds on to win its last Spanish Primera Division game at home to Malaga and, while the Bats led going into stoppage time, the Anchovies earned a merited draw courtesy of an extremely late Pablo Fornal goal.

Sociedad had a Spanish Primera Division shocker last time out, losing 1-5 at Deportivo. David Zurutuza missed that Spanish Primera Division match and Sociedad struggled in midfield without him. Zurutuza is likely to return, while Sociedad is likely to be able to field Carlos Martinez and Xabi Prieto even though both missed some midweek training.

According to one’s Spanish Primera Division collateral form analysis, Sociedad and Valencia have had 10 common league opponents and La Real enjoys a 7-1-2 advantage over the Bats. It defies logic that several bookmakers, including Betfred and Paddy Power, are quoting odds of +100  about a Sociedad success because that price implies that Valencia is almost as good as La Real. That clearly is not the case – Sociedad should be well into odds-on territory.

Another Spanish Primera Division match on Saturday in which one is interested is the clash between Las Palmas and Leganes. Many bookmakers, including BoyleSports and Marathonbet, are offering odds of -120  about Las Palmas maintaining its unbeaten Spanish Primera Division home record with a victory over a lower ranked guest.

Las Palmas is 10th on the Spanish Primera Division ladder and its 4-3-0 home numbers include a 3-1 defeat of Athletic and a 2-2 draw versus Real Madrid. Leganes is ranked 15th in the Spanish Primera Division and, while it is 3-0-4 on its travels, its road triumphs have been at the expense of Celta, Deportivo and Granada. Perhaps more instructively, Leganes is 1-2-6 against teams above it on the ladder.

No fewer than five regular Leganes starters are likely to sit out its Spanish Primera Division game at Las Palmas, which is terrible news for a side with the relatively shallow depth of the Cucumber Growers. Also, according to one’s Spanish Primera Division collateral form analysis, Leganes has faced 10 of the same teams as Las Palmas and one’s number crunching favours the latter 6-2-2.

Finally, Osasuna, which finished last season’s Spanish Segunda Division regular season in sixth place, is out of its depth in the top flight and one fears that it will cop a hiding when Barcelona comes to Pamplona on Saturday.

Already Osasuna has lost Spanish Primera Division matches 0-3 at home to Atletico Madrid and 2-5 away to Real Madrid, while its overall league record in front of its own fans is 0-2-5, including additional losses to Sociedad, Espanyol and Betis. Barcelona has won each of its six Spanish Primera Division games versus sides ranked in the bottom seven, racking up an aggregate score of 24-5. Anything other than a Barcelona win does not make sense so, in the quest for odds into which one can sink one’s teeth, Barca minus two goals at odds of +138  with Paddy Power holds a lot of appeal.

Tips Summary

Real Sociedad to beat Valencia
Saturday 10th December, 15:15 GMT
Odds:  +100

Las Palmas to beat Leganes
Saturday 10th December, 17:30 GMT
Odds:  -120

Barcelona -2 to beat Osasuna
Saturday 10th December, 12:00 GMT
Odds:  +138

La Liga
Las Palmas
Primera Division
Real Sociedad
Spanish football

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