Valencia’s Spanish Primera Division revival took a hit last time out when the Bats lost 0-2 to Atletico Madrid but one is convinced that they are in a false ladder position and overpriced to get the better of Gijon on Sunday.
For starters, Valencia and Gijon has each played four of the same Spanish Primera Division sides – Alaves, Athletic, Atletico Madrid and Leganes – and, according to one’s collateral form analysis, the Bats hold a 2-1-1 edge.
Shot statistics are becoming an increasingly popular way to rate football teams and the numbers out of the first seven Spanish Primera Division rounds support Valencia being a fair bit superior to Gijon. Valencia is 17th on the Spanish Primera Division ladder but the Bats have had 99 shots in their seven league matches, which is more than every other side except Atletico Madrid, Barcelona and Real Madrid. And Valencia has given up the eighth fewest Spanish Primera Division shots. Surely it is only a matter of time before Valencia climbs away from the Spanish Primera Division relegation zone and towards the ladder’s top half.
Gijon, however, is unlikely to escape trouble towards the foot of the Spanish Primera Division standings. Gijon has had the fewest Spanish Primera Division shots and just Betis, Alaves and Las Palmas have conceded more league shots than the Red and Whites. Gijon’s Spanish Primera Division ranking is not misleading whereas one thinks the opposite about Valencia.
Valencia won 1-0 at Gijon in last season’s corresponding Spanish Primera Division fixture and one is willing to list the Bats as one’s headline pick at odds of +122 with Marathonbet. Gijon’s Spanish Primera Division form has tailed off after making what was a promising start.
Derby games are not one’s idea of a good punting medium in most instances but one likes the thought of backing under two and a half goals in Sunday’s Spanish Primera Division match between Basque rivals Athletic and Sociedad.
Once again it is Marathonbet that is offering the best odds and its price of -130 is attractive in the circumstances.
Only six of the 14 Spanish Primera Division games that have featured either Athletic or Sociedad have gone under two and a half goals but the shots data of the two sides suggests that they are going to trend the other way eventually. Both Athletic and Sociedad rank in the Spanish Primera Division bottom nine for shots taken and, in particular, La Real are proving good at limiting shots conceded. Because there is so much at stake whenever Athletic and Sociedad meet, many of its matches have been low-scoring affairs. Indeed, each of the last six scraps between Athletic and Sociedad have managed to stay under the two-and-a-half-goals line.
Finally, one thinks that Atletico Madrid may run up a big win when it entertain Granada on Saturday. Atletico is available at odds of +120 with Paddy Power to put the cleaners through Granada and cover a two-goal handicap spread.
Granada is anchored at the foot of the Spanish Primera Division ladder having collected only two points and not having kept a clean sheet in its first seven assignments.
Atletico Madrid smashed Granada 3-0 in last term’s Spanish Primera Division meeting of the teams and the gap between the Mattressers and the Nasrids is, arguably, even greater now than it was when they locked horns in April.
Valencia to beat Gijon
Sunday 16th October, 17:30 GMT
Athletic Bilbao v Real Sociedad – Under 2.5 Goals
Sunday 16th October, 15:15 GMT
Atletico Madrid -2 to beat Granada
Saturday 15th October, 17:30 GMT