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Barcelona to Beat Deportivo by Two or Three Goals
Eric Roberts 2015-12-10 in Football Tips
Handicap betting is the best way to attack the 15th round of the Spanish Primera Division, with one rating several road teams as value wagers in receipt of varying head starts.
Collateral form analysis is the secret to identifying value bets at this stage of the Spanish Primera Division season, with the ladder sometimes presenting a misleading snapshot because some sides have benefitted from easier schedules than other teams following 14 of the 38 rounds. Deportivo, Gijon and Granada are the Spanish Primera Division sides that one thinks that bookmakers are underrating in their games versus Barcelona, Sevilla and Levante respectively.
Barcelona is the shortest-priced team on the Spanish Primera Division program as it strives for its 12th straight home victory across all competitions. Barcelona is five rungs and 12 points ahead of Deportivo on the Spanish Primera Division ladder but Super Depor’s collateral form lines stack up well against those of Barca – certainly better than bookmakers think based on their dismissive match betting markets.
Ten Spanish Primera Division sides have face both Barcelona and Deportivo, with one’s collateral form analysis posting a 4-3-2 edge for Barca, which becomes 7-2 if one shifts the three ties over to the side of the title favourites because they will host Saturday’s game. Initially, one was drawn to Deportivo on the four-goal handicap line at odds of 67/1001.67-1490.67-1.490.67 with Bet365. However, one thinks that Deportivo plus one goal is not an attractive wager so one prefers the idea of backing Barcelona to win by either two goals or three goals. Bet365 are offering odds of 4/15.00+4004.004.00-0.25 about a Barcelona victory by two goals, while Ladbrokes are listing odds of 7/24.50+3503.503.50-0.29 about a Barca by three goals – dutching those two options produces odds of 137/1002.37+1371.371.37-0.73.
Sevilla is the second hottest favourite on the Spanish Primera Division card, which is remarkable when one looks at the ladder and sees it occupying 10th place, only four rungs and four points in front of its Saturday guest, Gijon.
And, if anything, one’s collateral form analysis suggests that Sevilla is lucky to be above Gijon on the Spanish Primera Division ladder. Sevilla and Gijon have had 10 common Spanish Primera Division opponents, with one’s collateral form analysis seeing the former boast a 4-1-5 lead over the latter. Sevilla will host Saturday’s Spanish Primera Division match so the one tie ends up in its column but a 5-5 tally is not what one wants to see for a team that is trading at odds of under 2/51.40-2500.40-2.500.40. It’s Ladbrokes again that is offering odds of 17/201.85-1180.85-1.180.85 about Gijon in receipt of a two-goal head start and that rates as a worthy investment. Sevilla has covered a two-goal spread just once in its 14 Spanish Primera Division games, while Gijon is 12-0-2 in the league at that line.
Finally, one’s collateral form analysis points to Granada being overpriced to get something out of its Spanish Primera Division relegation scrap at Levante, also on Saturday.
Levante and Granada are level on 11 points after 14 Spanish Primera Division rounds but one’s collateral form analysis favours the latter over the former 5-2-3, suggesting that the Nasrids will move away from the Frogs as the season progresses and inequities in the schedule disappear.
Bet365 is offering odds of 83/1001.83-1200.83-1.200.83 about Granada, at the very least, ending the Spanish Primera Division round level on points with Levante. Based on one’s number crunching, the Spanish Primera Division relegation six-pointer should be one of those games in which there is no obvious favourite, so the double chance on the away side is a great value bet.
Barcelona to beat Deportivo by 2/3 goals
12th December 15:00 GMT
Gijon +2 to beat Sevilla
12th December 19:30 GMT
Granada win/draw v Levante
12th December 17:15 GMT
Eric has been a sports journalist for over 20 years and has travelled the world covering top sporting events for a number of publications. He also has a passion for betting and uses his in-depth knowledge of the sports world to pinpoint outstanding odds and value betting opportunities.
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