There is a compelling case for backing over two and a half goals in Saturday’s Italian Serie A game between second-placed Roma and third-placed Napoli.
Seventeen of Roma’s 26 Italian Serie A matches have gone over two and a half goals, including 10 of its 12 home games. Likewise, 17 of Napoli’s 26 Italian Serie A matches have gone over two and a half goals, including 10 of its 12 away games. Italian Serie A used to have a reputation for being the most tactical and dull of the major European football leagues but 14 of the teams are batting at least .500 on over two and a half goals this season, with Fiorentina leading the way at .692.
There are so many statistics that point to a high-scoring encounter in the first and biggest match of the Italian Serie A round. Roma has won each of its last 15 Italian Serie A home games, the Yellow and Reds have scored at least two goals in 11 of their last 13 league home matches and Napoli has rustled the onion bag at least twice in each of its last six divisional away fixtures. One will not bore you with even more numbers because one is sure that you can see from where one is coming, although it is worth noting the Italian Serie A ladder. Napoli is five points behind Roma so, if the Partenopei harbour any hope of overtaking the Yellow and Reds and stealing Italian Serie A’s second automatic UEFA Champions League berth, they have to win Saturday’s game in the capital and that may require plenty of goals.
Sensibly, most bookmakers are trying to duck the obvious wager but 188Bet is quoting odds of -156 and that is sufficiently big for one to get involved. After all, the reverse Italian Serie A fixture between Roma and Napoli resulted in a 3-1 away victory for the Yellow and Reds in which Edin Dzeko bagged a brace.
Zdenek Zeman has breezed into Pescara and that means that punters ought to be backing over two and a half goals in most Italian Serie A matches featuring the Dolphins, particularly when they venture away from home. Pescara will line up against Sampdoria in Genoa on Saturday and over two and a half goals is worth supporting at odds of -189 with Marathonbet even though Samp’s numbers are relatively poor – the Dolphins will be under instructions to play recklessly attacking football, thereby leaving the back door open for their opponents to score.
One does not like punting without a strong statistical argument – for example, just 11 of Sampdoria’s 26 Italian Serie A games have gone over two and a half goals – but Zeman is a once-in-a-lifetime coach and Pescara has nothing to lose because it is 10 points away from safety. Pescara has to win most of its remaining 12 Italian Serie A matches to preserve its top-flight status so draws are not going to cut the mustard and, if the Dolphins fall behind, they have to throw caution to the wind.
Finally, Atalanta is overpriced at odds of +100 with Betfred to post a fifth Italian Serie A win in a row when it hosts fading Fiorentina on Sunday. According to one’s Italian Serie A collateral form analysis, Atalanta boasts a 12-1-4 advantage over Fiorentina, a result that suggests that the ladder underestimates the gap between the Goddess and the Purples. Fiorentina boss Paulo Sousa is a dead man walking and another bad result could push the Purples to cut their losses sooner rather than later. Atalanta is flying in Italian Serie A and the Goddess have a legitimate shot of qualifying for the UEFA Champions League ahead of Napoli.
Roma v Napoli – Over 2.5 Goals
Saturday 4th March, 14:00 GMT
Sampdoria v Pescara – Over 2.5 Goals
Saturday 4th March, 17:00 GMT
Atalanta to beat Fiorentina
Sunday 5th March, 11:30 GMT