Baggies to Profit from Reds Having Other Priorities

West Brom held Liverpool to a 2-2 draw at Anfield.

The situation in which Liverpool finds itself for the last round of English Premier League games is why one is picking West Bromwich to beat the Reds at The Hawthorns on Sunday.

For Liverpool to guarantee qualification for next season’s UEFA Europa League it would have to defeat West Bromwich, Southampton would have to fail to beat Crystal Palace at home and West Ham would have to lose at Swansea, plus the Reds would need some help in the goal difference department. One cannot see all of those things happening so one expects Liverpool manager Jurgen Klopp to prioritise his team’s UEFA Europa League final against Sevilla over his team’s 38th and last English Premier League match versus West Bromwich.

Such is the depth of some English Premier League squads that second- and third-string sides are not mugs but one only has to go back to February when Manchester City coach Manuel Pellgrini prioritised the UEFA Champions League over the English FA Cup to see what can happen. Manchester City’s well below full-strength team crashed 1-5 at Chelsea in the English FA Cup fifth round in a match that took place on the day before the highly rated Citizens flew to Ukraine for a huge UEFA Champions League game against Dynamo Kiev.

It is anyone’s guess as to which 11 players will start for Liverpool versus West Bromwich in the English Premier League but one is willing to wager that the minds of the Reds will be elsewhere – Basel to be precise. West Bromwich is trading at odds of +150  with Betfred and Totesport and, while one would refrain from backing the Baggies if they got close to odds on – after all, they trail Liverpool 5-5-9 according to one’s English Premier League collateral form analysis – they are worth a punt at their Thursday price. West Bromwich did draw 2-2 at Liverpool in December’s reverse English Premier League fixture and one can bank on any Tony Pulis-managed side being switched on for a home match versus a big team.

Liverpool is one English Premier League side that one wants to oppose in the final round of games. Another is the team from across Stanley Park, Everton, which sacked Roberto Martinez three days before its Sunday home match against Norwich. Martinez was a dead man walking for much of the English Premier League season and it was a strange call for Everton to pull the pin on him after 37 of the 38 rounds.

According to one’s English Premier League collateral form analysis, Everton leads Norwich 10-2-7 but the Canaries have outperformed the Toffees versus five of the top six and seven of the top 11. Therefore, one is willing to bet on Norwich exiting the English Premier League with a bang, defeating an Everton side that is in a state of chaos.

BetVictor is offering odds of +340  about Norwich winning at Goodison Park, a feat that eight English Premier League teams have achieved during a miserable Toffees campaign.

Watford won 1-0 at Sunderland in the English Premier League five months ago and the return game may go the way of the Hornets, an option that is available at odds of +117  with Marathonbet. Watford boasts a 10-2-7 English Premier League collateral form lead according to one’s analysis and one would forgive the Black Cats for mentally checking out after completing their latest remarkable escape from relegation.

Finally, here are one’s English Premier League collateral form analysis results for each of Round 38’s 10 matches. The asterisk signifies the head-to-head winner.

Arsenal 17*-1-1 versus Aston Villa
Chelsea 3-5-11* versus Leicester
Everton 10*-2-7 versus Norwich
Manchester United 10-5-4* versus Bournemouth
Newcastle 2*-2-15 versus Tottenham
Southampton 14*-0-5 versus Crystal Palace
Stoke 4*-4-11 versus West Ham
Swansea 4-0-15* versus Manchester City
Watford 10*-2-7 versus Sunderland
West Bromwich 5*-5-9 versus Liverpool

Tips Summary

West Brom to beat Liverpool
Sunday 15th May, 15:00 GMT
Odds:  +150

Norwich to beat Everton
Sunday 15th May, 15:00 GMT
Odds:  +340

Watford to beat Sunderland
Sunday 15th May, 15:00 GMT
Odds:  +117

Premier League
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