The Sunday night game is the most interesting match on the Italian Serie A program because Sampdoria is overpriced to derive something from its away fixture versus a Milan side that will be backing up from a UEFA Europa League trip.
Milan will have three days to recover from its UEFA Europa League visit to Ludogorets but having to play in Bulgaria while Sampdoria is getting set on Italian soil puts the Red and Blacks at a considerable disadvantage. And there is the matter of one’s Italian Serie A collateral form analysis that, objectively, rates Sampdoria higher than Milan. According to one’s Italian Serie A collateral form data, Sampdoria enjoys a 9-2-8 lead over Milan and the gap between Samp and the Red and Blacks is at its greatest when one counts the results of games featuring the division’s top teams. For example, Sampdoria is 5-2-1 and 7-2-2 ahead of Milan on one’s progressive Italian Serie A collateral form analysis count and September’s reverse league fixture ended 2-0 in favor of Samp courtesy of two second-half goals.
That Milan is odds-on across the board means that bookmakers rate the Red and Blacks as being several notches better than Sampdoria, which makes no sense whatsoever. Milan has earned three fewer Italian Serie A points than Sampdoria and the Red and Blacks are 1-1-7 in their nine divisional matches against fellow top-nine sides. Franck Kessie is suspended for Milan so that is another knock on the Red and Blacks. Sampdoria’s Italian Serie A away numbers are not mindblowing but there is value in backing Samp at odds of +116 with 888Sport to avoid defeat versus Milan at San Siro. Sampdoria beat Milan 1-0 in last season’s corresponding Italian Serie A fixture so many Samp players have positive memories.
Internazionale is odds against to get the better of Genoa for the second time this term and that strikes one as more than acceptable given the respective strengths of the two teams. Inter is third on the Italian Serie A ladder, nine rungs, and 21 points above of Genoa. According to one’s Italian Serie A collateral form analysis, Inter boasts a 12-2-5 advantage over Genoa and the Black and Blues have only come a cropper versus Udinese and Sassuolo, whereas their hosts are 1-4-9 against sides higher up the ladder. Take Inter to win at +125 with BetVictor.
Italian Serie A frontrunner Napoli looks like a Sunday home banker versus an 18th-ranked SPAL that knows that key to its survival is how to fares against teams also in and around the relegation. Napoli holds a 18-1-0 Italian Serie A collateral form edge over SPAL so backing the Partenopei at odds of -189 with BetVictor to lead their guests at both half-time and full-time appeals.
Purely based on one’s Italian Serie A collateral form data there is an argument for supporting Bologna in its Sunday clash versus Sassuolo but the Red and Blues will be minus three regular starters due to their untimely suspensions.
Below are one’s Italian Serie A collateral form numbers for this weekend’s full round of fixtures.
Sampdoria or Draw – Double chance
Sunday 18th February, 19:45 GMT
Inter to beat Genoa
Saturday 17th February, 19:45 GMT
Napoli HT/FT Double result
Sunday 18th February, 14:00 GMT