Back Real Madrid and Barcelona, lay Bilbao and Sociedad


There are good favourites and there are bad favourites in the Spanish Primera Division and one’s task is to pick the correct shorties to back and the correct shorties to lay.

One does not have any issue whatsoever with Real Madrid at odds of -667  with Sportingbet to beat Cordoba on the road. One has analysed the Spanish Primera Division results of Real Madrid and Cordoba, with the teams facing 17 common opponents. Handicapping using half a goal as the value of playing at home, one’s view is that all 17 Spanish Primera Division collateral form lines favour Real Madrid, plus the Meringues won the reverse fixture 2-0. Therefore, one cannot make a case for anything other than a Real Madrid victory.

Bookmakers are offering only slightly longer odds about Barcelona winning its Spanish Primera Division match at Elche. Barcelona, which beat Elche 3-0 in the Spanish Primera Division first round, is trading at odds of -556  with several bookmakers, including Boylesports and Ladbrokes, to post its 15th league victory. Barcelona and Elche have had 18 common Spanish Primera Division opponents and one’s view is that 15 of those collateral form lines favour Barca and three favour neither team. Barcelona ought to defeat Elche but one would prefer to back Real Madrid to defeat Cordoba if one was going to steam into one favourite.

Now for the Spanish Primera Division favourites that one thinks are worth either avoiding or laying. One is not keen about taking short odds about Spanish Primera Division title holder Atletico Madrid beating Rayo Vallecano because one’s view is that the Mattressers have a 11-4-3 collateral form edge and Saturday’s game is a derby. All things considered, Atletico Madrid represent no value at its cramped odds but betting against Diego Simeone’s side does not appeal.

However, one is willing to oppose both Bilbao and Sociedad in their Spanish Primera Division home matches versus Malaga and Eibar respectively because bookmakers are offering odds that do not correspond with one’s collateral form analysis.

Bookmakers are betting on the Spanish Primera Division game between Bilbao and Malaga as though the teams have similar credentials and, frankly, that is preposterous. Bilbao and Malaga have had 18 common Spanish Primera Division opponents and one’s view is that 12 of those collateral form lines favour the Anchovies, who are six places and 14 points ahead of the Lions on the ladder. One thinks that there is plenty of value in backing Malaga not to lose at Bilbao, an option that Bet365 and Boylesports are offering at odds of -133 . Malaga beat Bilbao in the Spanish Primera Division opening round despite having two players sent off late in the match.

And bookmakers have set similarly silly odds for the Spanish Primera Division match between Sociedad and Eibar. Sociedad, which has won only two of its 10 matches versus top-flight sides under British boss David Moyes, and Eibar have had 18 common Spanish Primera Division opponents and one’s view is that nine of those collateral form lines favour the Gunners. Eibar, which defeated Sociedad 1-0 in the Spanish Primera Division first round, is available at odds of +120  with Boylesports not to lose at the Anoeta on Saturday.

With regards to Spanish Primera Division exotics, the game between Getafe and Celta has the potential to be high in cards points. Getafe’s Spanish Primera Division home cards points average is 30.50, while Celta’s league home cards points mean is 37.50. Overall, only two Spanish Primera Division teams – Malaga (36.84) and Rayo Vallecano (35.26) – have a higher cards points average than Celta (34.21).

Tips Summary

Real Madrid/Barcelona win double
24th January 15:00 – 17:00
Odds: ~ -278
Where to Bet: Boylesports, Ladbrokes

Malaga win/draw v Bilbao
25th January 16:00
Odds:  -133
Where to Bet: Bet365Boylesports

Eibar to win/draw v Sociedad
24th January 21:00
Odds:  +120
Where to Bet: Boylesports

Real Madrid
Spanish Primera
The Anchovies
The Lions

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