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There were more than five goals in each of the weekend’s Spanish Primera Division matches featuring relegation candidates Valladolid and Levante and one is willing to wager on both teams scoring in their midweek meeting.
Valladolid rallied from 0-2 and 1-3 to draw 3-3 at Celta, its first Spanish Primera Division goals since securing promotion back to Spain’s top flight earning its third point. One has written quite extensively that Valladolid’s Spanish Primera Division stay may be a short one because its squad lacks attacking threats but, if the White and Violets are going to fill their boots against an opponent, Levante may be that team. Levante crashed 2-6 at home to Sevilla on Sunday but the Frogs were overdue to cop a Spanish Primera Division hiding because, according to expected goals, they should have conceded nine goals in their four league games before the White and Reds took them to the cleaners.
Four of the last five matches between Valladolid and Levante have not featured a clean sheet so history, albeit not as recent as one would like, is on one’s side. Getting back to this season’s Spanish Primera Division data, Levante has netted eight goals and fired blanks only once so the Frogs ought to fancy their chance of celebrating at least one goal at Valladolid, while the White and Violets ought to have an air of confidence following their away draw last time out that took place the day before Sevilla smashed the Frogs. Back both teams to score at 6/7 1.86 -117 0.85 -1.17 0.85 with 188Bet.
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That Celta let in three goals when it entertained Valladolid in its last Spanish Primera Division game is just one of the reasons why one is predicting a relatively high-scoring match when the Sky Blues visit Valencia on Wednesday.
Celta has scored in each of its five Spanish Primera Division games and the only clean sheet it has managed was when it beat Atletico Madrid 2-0 at home in a minor upset. According to expected points, Celta is flattered by its fourth position on the Spanish Primera Division ladder but the Sky Blues are playing attacking football that lends itself to entertaining matches and goalmouth action.
Expected goals and expected points data suggest Valencia’s Spanish Primera Division fortunes are going to take a turn for the better sooner rather than later. Valencia is 0-4-1 and 15th on the Spanish Primera Division ladder but the Bats should be at least 1-3-1 and it is because the Bats have not scored their expected number of goals they are languishing in the bottom half. Three blanks in five Spanish Primera Division games do not reflect Valencia’s play this term.
Valencia and Celta have met six times across all tournaments in the last two season – each of those matches have had at least two goals, five of them have gone over two and a half goals and the average has been three and a half goals. Over 2.5 goals is the bet at 4/6 1.67 -150 0.67 -1.50 0.67 with Bet365.
One’s third and final Spanish Primera Division pick is under two and a half goals at 8/11 1.73 -138 0.72 -1.38 0.72 with Betway in Wednesday’s game between Athletic and Villarreal, which occurred when the teams drew 1-1 in last season’s corresponding fixture played in November.
Athletic is one of three unbeaten Spanish Primera Division sides but, while the Lions have netted seven goals, they have outperformed statistical expectations. Villarreal is the Spanish Primera Division’s lowest scoring team and, even though the Yellow Submarine are a little unlucky to be stuck on two goals, their expected number is just four. Moreover, Villarreal’s defence is the Spanish Primera Division’s joint stingiest with only three opponents breaching its rearguard.
Both teams to score in Valladolid versus Levante
Thursday 27th September, 19:00 BST
Odds: 6/7 1.86 -117 0.85 -1.17 0.85
Over 2.5 goals in Valencia versus Celta
Wednesday 26th September, 21:00BST
Odds: 4/6 1.67 -150 0.67 -1.50 0.67
Under 2.5 goals in Athletic versus Villarreal
Wednesday 26th September, 19:00 BST
Odds: 8/11 1.73 -138 0.72 -1.38 0.72
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